A 229-point edge to Argentina, which the model prices at 68.9% / 20.0% / 11.1%.
From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +240 and +11. 229 points of rating separation. Its rounded call is 2-1. Raw profiles are 1.64 and 0.72 against 1.19 and 1.12. Most likely single result is Argentina on 68.9%. Argentina holds a 48.9-point edge on the next outcome. Argentina holds both halves of the profile — 1.64 against 1.19 for scoring, 0.72 against 1.12 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The tie closed out 2-0. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.4%. A 57.8-point range top to bottom. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Both figures rest on decent samples, 11 and 12 matches. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Expected goals come out at 2.49 to 1.16. The higher rating expects 78.9% of the points, the lower 21.1%. A decisive result carries 80.0% against 20.0% for the draw. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
15 goals for and one against accompanied Argentina's five wins across five outings, keeping four clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 3-0 win at home to Algeria (17 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Zambia on 31 March.
Argentina's at home game on 17 June (World Cup) ended 3-0 against Algeria, with three goals for and zero against. On 10 June, Iceland faced Argentina in International Friendlies: Argentina won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 7 June brought a home meeting with Honduras; Argentina won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Argentina hosted Zambia on 31 March (International Friendlies) and won 5-0; their goals totalled five, compared with zero conceded. Mauritania travelled to face Argentina (International Friendlies) on 27 March. For Argentina, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed.
Argentina: 13th, three points, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Austria came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding four. On 17 June, Austria recorded a 3-1 win hosting Jordan; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Ghana on 27 March.
Jordan travelled to face Austria (World Cup) on 17 June. For Austria, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 1-0 was Austria's result against Tunisia on 1 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Austria won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 31 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Austria with Korea Republic. Austria won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Ghana (International Friendlies), Austria finished 5-1 on 27 March. Their score comprised five goals, against one from the opposition. 23 March 2025: Austria lost 0-2 against Serbia away from home in UEFA Nations League, scoring zero goals and allowing two.
Austria stood 15th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with three points from one match.
After the match
Argentina beat Austria 2-0 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas on 22 June 2026. Lionel Messi opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Argentina, set up by Facundo Medina, to make it 1-0. Lionel Messi added to the tally in the 95th minute for Argentina to make it 2-0. Stefan Posch (41'), Konrad Laimer (67'), Facundo Medina (76') and Leandro Paredes (90') were booked. 68.9% is Argentina's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Austria are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.36 to 0.53. two yellow cards went to Argentina. The substitution total for Argentina was five. After coming on for Argentina in minute 82, Leandro Paredes was booked. Austria picked up two yellow cards. Austria: five substitutions. Argentina kept their opponents scoreless.