A 251-point edge to Argentina, which the model prices at 71.3% / 19.2% / 9.5%.
Worldwide they stand at 117 and 2817 among 4,449 rated sides. 251 points of rating separation. Its rounded call is 2-1. Raw profiles are 1.27 and 0.87 against 1.07 and 1.18. Most likely single result is Argentina on 71.3%. Argentina holds a 52.1-point edge on the next outcome. Argentina holds both halves of the profile — 1.27 against 1.07 for scoring, 0.87 against 1.18 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The tie closed out 2-0. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.7%. A 61.8-point range top to bottom. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Both figures rest on decent samples, 8 and 8 matches. 2,700 places separate them in the global order. Expected goals come out at 2.02 to 1.25. One sits in the top 2.6%, the other the top 63.3%. A decisive result carries 80.8% against 19.2% for the draw. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.