1511 plays 1416; the model splits it 51.0% / 24.7% / 24.3%. Austria has the better scoring rate (1.19) and Jordan the better defensive one (1.07).
The Jordan figure is drawn from 5 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Result on the day: 3-1. Between best and worst outcome there is 26.7 points of daylight. The gap between first and second outcome is 26.3 points, Austria ahead of the draw. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Expected shares 63.3% against 36.7% on Elo. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Distance between the ratings: 95 points, wide on this scale. Most likely single result is Austria on 51.0%. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.8%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The model gives 75.3% to someone winning. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +11 and -84. Expected goals 1.72-1.34. In absolute terms: Austria 1.19/1.12, Jordan 0.89/1.07 on attack and defence. Its rounded call is 1-1. Higher rating: the home side.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Austria: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, four conceded. Latest: a 1-0 win at home to Tunisia on 1 June; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Ghana on 27 March.
Austria hosted Tunisia on 1 June (International Friendlies) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Korea Republic travelled to face Austria (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Austria, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 5-1 was Austria's result against Ghana on 27 March (International Friendlies), playing at home; Austria won, with five scored to one conceded. The 23 March 2025 fixture (UEFA Nations League) paired Austria with Serbia. Austria lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Serbia (UEFA Nations League), Austria finished 1-1 on 20 March 2025. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
Jordan: two draws and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, 13 conceded, without a win. Colombia were their latest opponents, away on 7 June: a 2-0 defeat.
Against Colombia in International Friendlies, Jordan scored zero and conceded two on 7 June; the away from home result was 0-2. Jordan's away from home game on 31 May (International Friendlies) ended 1-4 against Switzerland, with one goal for and four against. On 31 March, Nigeria faced Jordan in International Friendlies: Jordan drew 2-2 at home, having scored two and conceded two. International Friendlies, 27 March brought a home meeting with Costa Rica; Jordan drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Jordan hosted Qatar on 10 February 2024 (AFC Asian Cup) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded.
After the match
Austria beat Jordan 3-1 at Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area on 17 June 2026. Romano Schmid opened the scoring in the 20th minute for Austria, set up by Xaver Schlager, to make it 1-0. Ali Olwan levelled it 50 minutes into the game for Jordan, set up by Noor Al Rawabdeh, to make it 1-1. Austria regained the lead through Yazan Al Arab (an own goal) 76 minutes into the game, set up by Marcel Sabitzer, to make it 2-1. Marko Arnautovic added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 102nd minute for Austria to make it 3-1. Marcel Sabitzer (77') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Austria are 95 points stronger than Jordan. Austria are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. The card tally for Austria was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Austria. Marko Arnautovic entered for Austria at 46 minutes and later scored in minute 102. Jordan: five substitutions.