Read this with the sample size in view: Jordan's rating comes from 3 rated matches. The output — 1476 against 1415, splitting 45.8% / 25.9% / 28.4% — is what the model holds, but the confidence behind it is thinner than the decimals suggest.
Those ratings place them 2817th and 4117th worldwide, from a pool of 4,449. Distance between the ratings: 61 points, moderate on this scale. Result on the day: 3-1. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. The Jordan figure is drawn from 3 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Between best and worst outcome there is 19.9 points of daylight. Top 63.3% against top 92.5% on percentile. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Austria has the better scoring rate (1.07) and Jordan the better defensive one (1.17). A 1,300-place difference in ranking. Most likely single result is Austria on 45.8%. Expected goals 1.68-1.52. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.4%. The model gives 74.2% to someone winning. The gap between first and second outcome is 17.4 points, Austria ahead of Jordan.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.