The rating gap is 262 points here, and the split follows at 72.4% / 18.8% / 8.7%.
The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Neither figure is thin: 11 and 7 matches respectively sit behind them. The three results cover 63.7 points. A decisive result carries 81.1% against 18.8% for the draw. Argentina's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 81.9%. Argentina holds a 53.6-point edge on the next outcome. Result on the day: 3-0. In absolute terms: Argentina 1.64/0.72, Algeria 1.11/1.12 on attack and defence. The model's preferred outcome is Argentina at 72.4%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +240 and -22. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. Ratings sit 262 apart. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 9.5%. The home side is rated higher. xG: 2.47 to 1.08. Argentina holds both halves of the profile — 1.64 against 1.11 for scoring, 0.72 against 1.12 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Argentina were unbeaten in their last five games, with five wins, scoring 13 goals and conceding one, keeping four clean sheets. On 10 June, Argentina recorded a 3-0 win hosting Iceland; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Zambia on 31 March.
The 10 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Argentina with Iceland. Argentina won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Honduras (International Friendlies), Argentina finished 2-0 on 7 June. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 31 March: Argentina won 5-0 against Zambia at home in International Friendlies, scoring five goals and allowing zero. Against Mauritania in International Friendlies, Argentina scored two and conceded one on 27 March; the at home result was 2-1. Argentina's at home game on 15 July 2024 (Copa America) ended 1-0 against Colombia, with one goal for and zero against.
Algeria's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 12 scored and 2 conceded, keeping four clean sheets. Bolivia were their latest opponents, away on 11 June: a 4-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 7-0 at home to Guatemala on 27 March.
Against Bolivia in International Friendlies, Algeria scored four and conceded zero on 11 June; the away from home result was 4-0. Algeria's away from home game on 3 June (International Friendlies) ended 1-0 against Netherlands, with one goal for and zero against. On 31 March, Uruguay faced Algeria in International Friendlies: Algeria drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 27 March brought a home meeting with Guatemala; Algeria won 7-0, a return of seven goals scored and zero conceded. Algeria hosted Nigeria on 10 January (Africa Cup of Nations) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded.
After the match
Argentina comfortably beat Algeria 3-0 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City on 17 June 2026. Lionel Messi opened the scoring in the 17th minute for Argentina, set up by Rodrigo de Paul, to make it 1-0. Lionel Messi added to the tally 60 minutes into the game for Argentina to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Argentina extended the lead through Lionel Messi 76 minutes into the game, set up by Nicolás González, to make it 3-0. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Argentina 262 points stronger than Algeria. Argentina's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 72.4% for a win in this pairing. Argentina: five substitutions. Nicolás González, on in the 55th minute, provided an assist. The substitution total for Algeria was five. Argentina conceded no goals.