The rating gap is 272 points here, and the split follows at 73.5% / 18.5% / 8.0%.
The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Only 4 rated matches back the Algeria figure. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The three results cover 65.5 points. A decisive result carries 81.5% against 18.5% for the draw. Argentina is the higher-percentile side, top 2.6% against top 79.3%. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Result on the day: 3-0. In absolute terms: Argentina 1.27/0.87, Algeria 0.98/1.15 on attack and defence. The model's preferred outcome is Argentina at 73.5%. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 117th and 3530th of 4,449. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Argentina holds a 55.0-point edge on the next outcome. Ratings sit 272 apart. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.0%. The ranking gap is 3,413 positions. xG: 1.97 to 1.15. Argentina holds both halves of the profile — 1.27 against 0.98 for scoring, 0.87 against 1.15 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.