3 rated matches is a thin base for Iraq; the model still returns 50.0% / 24.9% / 25.1%.
Iraq's number leans on a 3-match sample. In the global table that is 3243 and 4315 out of 4,449 rated teams. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Both components point the same way, toward Senegal: 1.19 to 0.87 going forward, 1.14 to 1.33 going back. They are 1,072 places apart on the global list. 50.0% goes to Senegal, the model's lean. A 25.1-point range top to bottom. Final score: 5-0. Point estimate: 2-1. Expected goals sit at 2.15 against 1.34. A 24.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. 75.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. In absolute terms: Senegal 1.19/1.14, Iraq 0.87/1.33 on attack and defence. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. 89 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The higher-percentile side clears the top 72.9%; the other the top 97.0%. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.4%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.