Both components point the same way, toward Senegal: 1.12 to 0.89 going forward, 0.99 to 1.32 going back. On rating it is 1491 against 1382, which the model resolves to 53.1% / 24.2% / 22.7%.
Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Iraq's number leans on a 6-match sample. Expected goals sit at 1.99 against 1.18. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 9.8%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 75.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. A 30.4-point range top to bottom. The higher-rated side expects 65.2% of the points; the other side 34.8%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -9 and -118. Point estimate: 1-1. 53.1% goes to Senegal, the model's lean. In absolute terms: Senegal 1.12/0.99, Iraq 0.89/1.32 on attack and defence. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. A 28.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Final score: 5-0. 109 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Senegal came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding ten. On 23 June, Senegal recorded a 3-2 defeat visiting Norway.
Senegal's away from home game on 23 June (World Cup) ended 2-3 against Norway, with two goals for and three against. On 16 June, France faced Senegal in World Cup: Senegal lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. International Friendlies, 9 June brought an away meeting with Saudi Arabia; Senegal drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Senegal visited USA on 31 May (International Friendlies) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Gambia travelled to face Senegal (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Senegal, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed.
Senegal: 43rd, zero points, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Iraq came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring three goals and conceding ten. A 3-0 defeat away to France (22 June) was their most recent result.
The 22 June fixture (World Cup) paired Iraq with France. Iraq lost 0-3 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Norway (World Cup), Iraq finished 1-4 on 16 June. Their score comprised one goal, against four from the opposition. 10 June: Iraq lost 0-2 against Venezuela at home in International Friendlies, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Spain in International Friendlies, Iraq scored one and conceded one on 4 June; the away from home result was 1-1. Iraq's at home game on 29 May (International Friendlies) ended 1-0 against Andorra, with one goal for and zero against.
Iraq: 46th, zero points, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
After the match
Senegal overwhelmed Iraq 5-0 at BMO Field, Toronto on 26 June 2026. H. Diarra opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Senegal, set up by A. Seck, to make it 1-0. I. Sarr added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Senegal, set up by L. Camara, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Senegal extended the lead through P. Gueye 59 minutes into the game, set up by I. Sarr, to make it 3-0. P. Gueye scored the 4th goal for Senegal 71 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by I. Ndiaye, to make it 4-0. Senegal extended the lead late on, in the 82nd minute; the match's 5th goal came through I. Ndiaye, set up by P. Gueye, to make it 5-0. R. Sulaka (13') was sent off. A. Seck (18'), A. Al Ammari (75'), P. Gueye (81') and M. Doski (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Senegal 109 points stronger than Iraq. On current ratings the model puts Senegal at around 1.99 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Expected goals put the gap at 3.01 to 0.14. Senegal: two yellow cards. Senegal made five changes. The card tally for Iraq was two yellow cards and one red card. Iraq made five changes. A clean sheet for Senegal.