Rated 1564 and 1629, these two produce a 27.9% / 25.7% / 46.3% split. There is no trade-off to weigh: France scores at the higher rate (1.22 to 1.17) and concedes at the lower (0.91 to 1.11).
The model gives 74.2% to someone winning. The leading outcome clears the second by 18.4 points. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 329 places separate them in the global order. Distance between the ratings: 65 points, moderate on this scale. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.0%. Expected goals come out at 1.43 to 1.83. By share of the rated field: 6.3% and 13.7%. The four component numbers read 1.17, 1.11, 1.22, 0.91. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The tie closed out 1-4. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Most likely single result is France on 46.3%. A 20.6-point range top to bottom. Worldwide they stand at 609 and 280 among 4,449 rated sides. Norway's side of that rests on 6 rated matches, so treat it as provisional.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.