Rated 1534 and 1663, these two produce a 20.5% / 23.5% / 56.0% split. There is no trade-off to weigh: France scores at the higher rate (1.25 to 1.15) and concedes at the lower (0.80 to 1.19).
The model gives 76.5% to someone winning. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. The ratings draw on 10 and 18 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Distance between the ratings: 129 points, wide on this scale. The leading outcome clears the second by 32.5 points. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 9.7%. Expected goals come out at 1.23 to 2.01. By expected share of the points: 32.2% and 67.8%. The four component numbers read 1.15, 1.19, 1.25, 0.80. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The tie closed out 1-4. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Most likely single result is France on 56.0%. A 35.5-point range top to bottom. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +34 and +163. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Norway were unbeaten in their last five games, with three wins and two draws, scoring 11 goals and conceding five. A 3-2 win at home to Senegal (23 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Iraq on 16 June.
World Cup, 23 June brought a home meeting with Senegal; Norway won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. Norway visited Iraq on 16 June (World Cup) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Morocco hosted Norway (International Friendlies) on 7 June. For Norway, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 3-1 was Norway's result against Sweden on 1 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Norway won, with three scored to one conceded. The 31 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Norway with Switzerland. Norway drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.
Norway stood 10th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with six points from two matches.
France came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 13 goals and conceding five. On 22 June, France recorded a 3-0 win hosting Iraq.
France's at home game on 22 June (World Cup) ended 3-0 against Iraq, with three goals for and zero against. On 16 June, Senegal faced France in World Cup: France won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one. International Friendlies, 8 June brought a home meeting with Northern Ireland; France won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. France hosted Ivory Coast on 4 June (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Colombia hosted France (International Friendlies) on 29 March. For France, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed.
France stood 7th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with six points from two matches.
After the match
France comfortably beat Norway 4-1 at Gillette Stadium, Boston on 26 June 2026. Ousmane Dembélé opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for France, set up by Kylian Mbappé, to make it 1-0. Ousmane Dembélé added to the tally in the 20th minute for France, set up by Kylian Mbappé, to make it 2-0. Thelo Aasgaard pulled one back in the 21st minute for Norway, set up by Andreas Schjelderup, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, France extended the lead through Ousmane Dembélé in the 32nd minute, set up by Aurélien Tchouameni, to make it 3-1. Desire Doue scored the 5th goal for France in the 94th minute as they extended the lead, set up by Bradley Barcola, to make it 4-1. Patrick Berg (10') and Aurélien Tchouameni (74') were booked. 56% is France's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. France are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.7 to 1.5. The card tally for Norway was one yellow card. Norway made five changes. one yellow card went to France. France: five substitutions. After coming on for France in minute 65, Bradley Barcola provided an assist.