The stalemate is the notable number here: 26.5%, with the wins on 43.0% and 30.6%.
2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected goals come out at 1.53 to 1.80. 43 points of rating separation. Most likely single result is Norway on 43.0%. Norway sits 12.4 points above the next most likely result. A decisive result carries 73.6% against 26.5% for the draw. Its rounded call is 1-1. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.15 to 1.12 says Norway, 0.99 to 1.19 says Senegal. A 16.5-point range top to bottom. Behind them are 10 and 7 rated matches. The home side is rated higher. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +34 and -9. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 9.9% leads, but only just. Attack/defence pairs: 1.15/1.19 and 1.12/0.99. Elo expected shares: 56.2% and 43.8%. The match finished 3-2. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Norway's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 5 conceded. Latest: a 4-1 win away to Iraq on 16 June.
Playing away from home against Iraq (World Cup), Norway finished 4-1 on 16 June. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition. 7 June: Norway drew 1-1 against Morocco away from home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Sweden in International Friendlies, Norway scored three and conceded one on 1 June; the at home result was 3-1. Norway's at home game on 31 March (International Friendlies) ended 0-0 against Switzerland, with zero goals for and zero against. On 27 March, Netherlands faced Norway in International Friendlies: Norway lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two.
three points in one match put Norway 14th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
eight goals for and seven against accompanied Senegal's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. A 3-1 defeat away to France (16 June) was their most recent result.
16 June: Senegal lost 1-3 against France away from home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against Saudi Arabia in International Friendlies, Senegal scored zero and conceded zero on 9 June; the away from home result was 0-0. Senegal's away from home game on 31 May (International Friendlies) ended 2-3 against USA, with two goals for and three against. On 31 March, Gambia faced Senegal in International Friendlies: Senegal won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one. International Friendlies, 28 March brought a home meeting with Peru; Senegal won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded.
Senegal stood 41st in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with zero points from one match.
After the match
Norway edged past Senegal 3-2 at MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey on 23 June 2026. Marcus Pedersen opened the scoring in the 43rd minute for Norway to make it 1-0. Erling Haaland added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Norway, set up by Martin Ødegaard, to make it 2-0. Ismaïla Sarr pulled one back 53 minutes into the game for Senegal to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Norway extended the lead through Erling Haaland 58 minutes into the game, set up by Patrick Berg, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Senegal reduced the deficit through Ismaïla Sarr in the 93rd minute, set up by Nicolas Jackson, to make it 2-3. Norway: five substitutions. Marcus Pedersen, on in the 13th minute, scored in minute 43. Patrick Berg entered for Norway at 46 minutes and later provided an assist. five changes were recorded for Senegal.