Rated 1564 and 1467, these two produce a 51.4% / 24.6% / 24.0% split. On components there is almost nothing in it: 1.17 to 1.19 forward, 1.11 to 1.14 back.
No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. In the global table that is 609 and 3243 out of 4,449 rated teams. The match finished 3-2. A decisive result carries 75.4% against 24.6% for the draw. Norway sits 26.8 points above the next most likely result. Attack/defence pairs: 1.17/1.11 and 1.19/1.14. Its rounded call is 1-1. Most likely single result is Norway on 51.4%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 8.9% leads, but only just. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Percentile-wise: top 13.7% versus top 72.9%. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. A 4-match base for Senegal. Expected goals come out at 1.80 to 1.79. The ranking gap is 2,634 positions. 97 points of rating separation. A 27.4-point range top to bottom.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.