Sample size is the first thing to note. Iraq carries 3 rated matches, so while the split reads 71.3% / 19.2% / 9.5% off ratings of 1629 and 1378, the confidence is thin.
Distance between the ratings: 251 points, wide on this scale. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. There is no trade-off to weigh: France scores at the higher rate (1.22 to 0.87) and concedes at the lower (0.91 to 1.33). One sits in the top 6.3%, the other the top 97.0%. A 4,035-place difference in ranking. France leads the distribution by 52.1 points over the draw. The tie closed out 3-0. Top of the distribution: France, 71.3%. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 9.8% — not a strong call. 80.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. They occupy positions 280 and 4315 in a 4,449-team ranking. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The four component numbers read 1.22, 0.91, 0.87, 1.33. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-1. Most and least likely outcomes are 61.8 points apart. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Iraq's side of that rests on 3 rated matches, so treat it as provisional.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.