France enters 281 points clear of Iraq on rating, which the model reads as 74.4% / 18.2% / 7.5%.
Distance between the ratings: 281 points, wide on this scale. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. There is no trade-off to weigh: France scores at the higher rate (1.25 to 0.89) and concedes at the lower (0.80 to 1.32). The higher rating expects 83.4% of the points, the lower 16.6%. Higher rating: the home side. France leads the distribution by 56.2 points over the draw. The tie closed out 3-0. Top of the distribution: France, 74.4%. 2-0 leads the scorelines at 10.3% — not a strong call. 81.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +163 and -118. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The four component numbers read 1.25, 0.80, 0.89, 1.32. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-0. Most and least likely outcomes are 66.9 points apart. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Iraq's side of that rests on 6 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. Goal expectation splits 2.23 to 0.95.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
12 goals for and six against accompanied France's four wins and one defeat across five outings. A 3-1 win at home to Senegal (16 June) was their most recent result.
Senegal travelled to face France (World Cup) on 16 June. For France, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 3-1 was France's result against Northern Ireland on 8 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; France won, with three scored to one conceded. The 4 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired France with Ivory Coast. France lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Colombia (International Friendlies), France finished 3-1 on 29 March. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 26 March: France won 2-1 against Brazil away from home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing one.
France: 15th, three points, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Iraq's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 10 conceded. Latest: a 4-1 defeat at home to Norway on 16 June.
Iraq hosted Norway on 16 June (World Cup) and lost 1-4; their goals totalled one, compared with four conceded. Venezuela travelled to face Iraq (International Friendlies) on 10 June. For Iraq, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Iraq's result against Spain on 4 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Iraq drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 29 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Iraq with Andorra. Iraq won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Jordan (AFC Asian Cup), Iraq finished 2-3 on 29 January 2024. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Iraq 44th after one match and zero points.
After the match
France comfortably beat Iraq 3-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia on 22 June 2026. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for France, set up by Michael Olise, to make it 1-0. Kylian Mbappé added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for France, set up by Ousmane Dembélé, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, France extended the lead through Ousmane Dembélé 66 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Amir Al Ammari (6') was booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have France 281 points stronger than Iraq. France's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 74.4% for a win in this pairing. France are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.67 to 0.63. The substitution total for France was five. one yellow card went to Iraq. Iraq: five substitutions. France kept their opponents scoreless.