Small-sample warning: 3 matches for Iraq. Ratings 1378 and 1564, split 14.8% / 21.5% / 63.7%.
A 3-match base for Iraq. The three results cover 48.9 points. As a single number the model says 1-2. The ranking gap is 3,706 positions. 186 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Top of the distribution: Norway, 63.7%. In absolute terms: Iraq 0.87/1.33, Norway 1.17/1.11 on attack and defence. Scorelines above 8%: 2. One sits in the top 13.7%, the other the top 97.0%. In the global table that is 4315 and 609 out of 4,449 rated teams. The tie closed out 1-4. Win-or-lose totals 78.5%; the draw takes the rest. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 9.6%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.30 and 2.11. Norway sits 42.2 points above the next most likely result. Norway is ahead on each half — 1.17 to 0.87 in attack, 1.11 to 1.33 in defence.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.