Norway enters 152 points clear of Iraq on rating, which the model reads as 18.1% / 22.7% / 59.3%.
A 6-match base for Iraq. The three results cover 41.2 points. As a single number the model says 1-2. The away side is rated higher. 152 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Top of the distribution: Norway, 59.3%. In absolute terms: Iraq 0.89/1.32, Norway 1.15/1.19 on attack and defence. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The higher rating expects 70.6% of the points, the lower 29.4%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -118 and +34. The tie closed out 1-4. Win-or-lose totals 77.4%; the draw takes the rest. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 9.3%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.43 and 2.05. Norway sits 36.6 points above the next most likely result. Norway is ahead on each half — 1.15 to 0.89 in attack, 1.19 to 1.32 in defence.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Iraq came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding eight. A 2-0 defeat at home to Venezuela (10 June) was their most recent result.
The 10 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Iraq with Venezuela. Iraq lost 0-2 at home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Spain (International Friendlies), Iraq finished 1-1 on 4 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 29 May: Iraq won 1-0 against Andorra at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Jordan in AFC Asian Cup, Iraq scored two and conceded three on 29 January 2024; the at home result was 2-3. Iraq's at home game on 24 January 2024 (AFC Asian Cup) ended 3-2 against Vietnam, with three goals for and two against.
Norway: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; ten goals scored, four conceded. Morocco were their latest opponents, away on 7 June: a 1-1 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Kazakhstan on 17 November 2024.
1-1 was Norway's result against Morocco on 7 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Norway drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 1 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Norway with Sweden. Norway won 3-1 at home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Switzerland (International Friendlies), Norway finished 0-0 on 31 March. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 27 March: Norway lost 1-2 against Netherlands away from home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Kazakhstan in UEFA Nations League, Norway scored five and conceded zero on 17 November 2024; the at home result was 5-0.
After the match
Norway comfortably beat Iraq 4-1 at Gillette Stadium, Boston on 16 June 2026. Zaid Tahseen (86') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Norway 152 points stronger than Iraq. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Norway: 59.3% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Expected goals put the gap at 0.8 to 2.52. The card tally for Iraq was one yellow card. Iraq made five changes. The substitution total for Norway was five. After coming on for Norway in minute 73, Kristian Thorstvedt scored in minute 97. Leo Østigård scored in minute 76 following entry for Norway in the 73rd minute.