France enters 172 points clear of Senegal on rating, which the model reads as 61.9% / 22.0% / 16.1%.
A 39.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Neither component contradicts the other: France leads 1.25-1.12 forward and 0.80-0.99 back. 61.9% goes to France, the model's lean. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The home side is rated higher. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. In absolute terms: France 1.25/0.80, Senegal 1.12/0.99 on attack and defence. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.4%. 172 points of rating separation. The higher rating expects 72.9% of the points, the lower 27.1%. One recorded prior meeting: 2002, 0-1 in World Cup. A single result carries no predictive load. Win-or-lose totals 78.0%; the draw takes the rest. xG: 1.67 to 1.20. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Result on the day: 3-1. The ratings draw on 18 and 7 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +163 and -9. A 45.8-point range top to bottom.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
France came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding five. On 8 June, France recorded a 3-1 win hosting Northern Ireland.
France's at home game on 8 June (International Friendlies) ended 3-1 against Northern Ireland, with three goals for and one against. On 4 June, Ivory Coast faced France in International Friendlies: France lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. International Friendlies, 29 March brought an away meeting with Colombia; France won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. France visited Brazil on 26 March (International Friendlies) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Germany hosted France (UEFA Nations League) on 8 June 2025. For France, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed.
Senegal's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 7 conceded. Saudi Arabia were their latest opponents, away on 9 June: a 0-0 draw.
Playing away from home against Saudi Arabia (International Friendlies), Senegal finished 0-0 on 9 June. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 31 May: Senegal lost 2-3 against USA away from home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against Gambia in International Friendlies, Senegal scored three and conceded one on 31 March; the at home result was 3-1. Senegal's at home game on 28 March (International Friendlies) ended 2-0 against Peru, with two goals for and zero against. On 18 January, Morocco faced Senegal in Africa Cup of Nations: Senegal lost 0-3 at home, having scored zero and conceded three.
After the match
France beat Senegal 3-1 at MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey on 16 June 2026. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring 66 minutes into the game for France, set up by Michael Olise, to make it 1-0. Bradley Barcola added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for France, set up by Adrien Rabiot, to make it 2-0. Ibrahim M'Baye pulled one back in the 95th minute for Senegal, set up by Iliman Ndiaye, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, France extended the lead through Kylian Mbappé in the 96th minute to make it 3-1. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have France 172 points stronger than Senegal. Every goal came after the interval. 61.9% is France's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. France are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 1.79 to 0.53. France won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. France: two substitutions. After coming on for France in minute 80, Bradley Barcola scored in minute 82. Senegal: five substitutions. Ibrahim M'Baye entered for Senegal at 75 minutes and later scored in minute 95. After coming on for Senegal in minute 83, Iliman Ndiaye provided an assist.