France enters 162 points clear of Senegal on rating, which the model reads as 60.7% / 22.3% / 17.0%.
Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Neither component contradicts the other: France leads 1.22-1.19 forward and 0.91-1.14 back. 60.7% goes to France, the model's lean. A 38.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The ranking gap is 2,963 positions. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. In absolute terms: France 1.22/0.91, Senegal 1.19/1.14 on attack and defence. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.7%. 162 points of rating separation. One sits in the top 6.3%, the other the top 72.9%. One prior meeting exists: 2002, 0-1 in World Cup. A single result carries no predictive load. Win-or-lose totals 77.7%; the draw takes the rest. xG: 1.88 to 1.46. Only 4 rated matches back the Senegal figure. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Result on the day: 3-1. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. In the global table that is 280 and 3243 out of 4,449 rated teams. A 43.7-point range top to bottom.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.