Across 2 recorded meetings back to 1966 the split is 1-0-1 from Spain's side on wins, 7-3 on goals. The last was 2018, 6-1 in Friendlies. The present numbers are 1808 against 1740, and the model turns that into 46.8% / 25.6% / 27.5%.
Recorded ahead of kickoff: 47.0% / 25.6% / 27.4%. It landed. Spain holds a 19.3-point edge on the next outcome. A 68-point difference on the rating scale. The underlying goal expectation is 1.37 for Spain, 1.36 for Argentina. The match finished 1-0. Their expected shares of the points are 59.7% and 40.3%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The four component numbers read 1.41, 0.62, 1.64, 0.72. A 21.2-point range top to bottom. The higher rating belongs to the home side. With 19 and 11 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Versus the 1500 seed: +308 and +240. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.1%. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The model's preferred outcome is Spain at 46.8%.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Spain: five wins over five games; nine goals scored, one conceded, keeping four clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 2-0 win away to France on 14 July; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Austria on 2 July.
Against France in World Cup, Spain scored two and conceded zero on 14 July; the away from home result was 2-0. Spain's at home game on 10 July (World Cup) ended 2-1 against Belgium, with two goals for and one against. On 6 July, Portugal faced Spain in World Cup: Spain won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. World Cup, 2 July brought a home meeting with Austria; Spain won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Spain visited Uruguay on 27 June (World Cup) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded.
Argentina's previous five results comprised five wins. Their goal totals were 14 scored and 7 conceded, with no defeats. England were their latest opponents, away on 15 July: a 2-1 win.
On 15 July, England faced Argentina in World Cup: Argentina won 2-1 away from home, having scored two and conceded one. World Cup, 12 July brought a home meeting with Switzerland; Argentina won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Argentina hosted Egypt on 7 July (World Cup) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded. Cape Verde travelled to face Argentina (World Cup) on 3 July. For Argentina, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 3-1 was Argentina's result against Jordan on 28 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Argentina won, with three scored to one conceded.
After the match
Spain edged past Argentina 1-0 at MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey on 19 July 2026. Ferrán Torres opened the scoring in the 106th minute for Spain, set up by Nico Williams, to make it 1-0. Enzo Fernández (90') was sent off. Lisandro Martínez (41'), Leandro Paredes (52'), Enzo Fernández (82'), Christian Romero (90'), Lionel Scaloni (105') and Alexis Mac Allister (111') were booked. Spain's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Spain made six changes. Ferrán Torres scored in minute 106 following entry for Spain in the 62nd minute. Nico Williams, on in the 75th minute, provided an assist. Argentina: six yellow cards and one red card. Argentina made six changes. Leandro Paredes entered for Argentina at 46 minutes and later was booked. A clean sheet for Spain.