Across 2 recorded meetings back to 1966 the split is 1-0-1 in Spain's favour on wins, 7-3 on goals. The last was 2018, 6-1 in Friendlies. The present numbers are 1784 against 1727, and the model turns that into 45.2% / 26.0% / 28.8%.
Recorded ahead of kickoff: 47.0% / 25.6% / 27.4%. It landed. Spain holds a 16.4-point edge on the next outcome. A 57-point difference on the rating scale. The underlying goal expectation is 1.40 for Spain, 0.92 for Argentina. The match finished 1-0. By share of the rated field: 1.6% and 2.6%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The four component numbers read 1.19, 0.53, 1.27, 0.87. A 19.2-point range top to bottom. 48 places separate them in the global order. With 15 and 8 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-0. Global standing: 69 and 117 of 4,449. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-0 on 13.8%. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The model's preferred outcome is Spain at 45.2%.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.