On file: 5 previous meetings dating to 1966, 7-9 on goals. Last time: 2022, 2-1 in World Cup. Currently 1663 against 1718 — a 29.1% / 26.1% / 44.9% split.
The away side is rated higher. A decisive result carries 74.0% against 26.1% for the draw. Elo expected shares: 42.2% and 57.8%. Raw profiles are 1.25 and 0.80 against 1.61 and 0.90. A 55-point difference on the rating scale. Both figures rest on decent samples, 18 and 19 matches. Between best and worst outcome there is 18.8 points of daylight. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.2%. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Versus the 1500 seed: +163 and +218. England carries the largest share, 44.9%. It ended 4-6. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The forecast we stored before the match was 48.5% / 25.2% / 26.2%. That one did not come off. First to second is a 15.8-point step, England over France. The underlying goal expectation is 1.51 for France, 1.74 for England. The two halves pull apart — England better going forward at 1.61, France tighter at the back on 0.80.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
France's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 3 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Spain were their latest opponents, at home on 14 July: a 2-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Sweden on 30 June.
On 14 July, Spain faced France in World Cup: France lost 0-2 at home, having scored zero and conceded two. World Cup, 9 July brought a home meeting with Morocco; France won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. France visited Paraguay on 4 July (World Cup) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Sweden travelled to face France (World Cup) on 30 June. For France, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 4-1 was France's result against Norway on 26 June (World Cup), playing away from home; France won, with four scored to one conceded.
ten goals for and six against accompanied England's four wins and one defeat across five outings. A 2-1 defeat at home to Argentina (15 July) was their most recent result.
England's at home game on 15 July (World Cup) ended 1-2 against Argentina, with one goal for and two against. On 11 July, Norway faced England in World Cup: England won 2-1 away from home, having scored two and conceded one. World Cup, 6 July brought an away meeting with Mexico; England won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. England hosted Congo DR on 1 July (World Cup) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Panama hosted England (World Cup) on 27 June. For England, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 away win for France on 10 December 2022 and a 1-1 draw at France on 11 June 2012.
After the match
England beat France 6-4 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami on 18 July 2026. Declan Rice opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for England to make it 1-0. Ezri Konsa added to the tally in the 18th minute for England, set up by Declan Rice, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, England extended the lead through Bukayo Saka in the 37th minute, set up by Marcus Rashford, to make it 3-0. Bukayo Saka scored the 4th goal for England 46 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Eberechi Eze, to make it 4-0. Kylian Mbappé got one back 48 minutes into the game for France, set up by Michael Olise, to make it 1-4. With the 6th goal, France reduced the deficit through Bradley Barcola 54 minutes into the game, set up by Kylian Mbappé, to make it 2-4. Kylian Mbappé scored the 7th goal for France 66 minutes into the game as they reduced the deficit, set up by Michael Olise, to make it 3-4. England extended the lead late on, in the 87th minute; the match's 8th goal came through Bukayo Saka from the penalty spot, set up by Djed Spence, to make it 5-3. France reduced the deficit in the 96th minute; the match's 9th goal came through Ousmane Dembélé, set up by Dayot Upamecano, to make it 4-5. The 10th goal came in the 98th minute from Jude Bellingham for England, who extended the lead to make it 6-4. 3 gols came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model puts England at around 1.74 gols in this pairing; they scored 6 here. France are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. five changes were recorded for France. Ousmane Dembélé scored in minute 96 following entry for France in the 46th minute. Dayot Upamecano, on in the 46th minute, provided an assist. Bradley Barcola entered for France at 46 minutes and later scored in minute 54. five changes were recorded for England. Jude Bellingham, on in the 79th minute, scored in minute 98.