They have 5 previous meetings dating to 1966, 7-9 on goals. Last time: 2022, 2-1 in World Cup. Currently 1629 against 1701 — a 27.1% / 25.5% / 47.4% split.
The ranking gap is 130 positions. A decisive result carries 74.5% against 25.5% for the draw. Percentile-wise: top 3.4% versus top 6.3%. Raw profiles are 1.22 and 0.91 against 1.33 and 1.01. A 72-point difference on the rating scale. Both figures rest on decent samples, 14 and 15 matches. Between best and worst outcome there is 21.9 points of daylight. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.1%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Global standing: 280 and 150 of 4,449. England carries the largest share, 47.4%. It ended 4-6. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The forecast we stored before the match was 48.5% / 25.2% / 26.2%. That one did not come off. First to second is a 20.3-point step, England over France. The underlying goal expectation is 1.66 for France, 1.63 for England. The two halves pull apart — England better going forward at 1.33, France tighter at the back on 0.91.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.