The head-to-head counts 5 recorded meetings since 1962: 3 to England, 1 to Argentina, 1 drawn, 8-5 on aggregate. Most recently 2002, 1-0 in World Cup. Currently 1718 against 1740 — a 33.2% / 27.2% / 39.5% split.
The four component numbers read 1.61, 0.90, 1.64, 0.72. Higher rating: the away side. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +218 and +240. A 6.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Rounded, that is 1-1. A decisive result carries 72.7% against 27.2% for the draw. Argentina holds both halves of the profile — 1.64 against 1.61 for scoring, 0.72 against 0.90 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Argentina carries the largest share, 39.5%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Ratings sit 22 apart. Expected goals 1.57-1.99. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 48.4% / 25.3% / 26.4%. The result went the other way. Spread across the three results is 12.3 points. Played and finished 1-2. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 8.9%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
England's previous five results comprised four wins and one draw. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 4 conceded, with no defeats. Norway were their latest opponents, away on 11 July: a 2-1 win.
Against Norway in World Cup, England scored two and conceded one on 11 July; the away from home result was 2-1. England's away from home game on 6 July (World Cup) ended 3-2 against Mexico, with three goals for and two against. On 1 July, Congo DR faced England in World Cup: England won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. World Cup, 27 June brought an away meeting with Panama; England won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. England hosted Ghana on 23 June (World Cup) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded.
Argentina were unbeaten in their last five games, with five wins, scoring 14 goals and conceding six. On 12 July, Argentina recorded a 3-1 win hosting Switzerland.
12 July: Argentina won 3-1 against Switzerland at home in World Cup, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Egypt in World Cup, Argentina scored three and conceded two on 7 July; the at home result was 3-2. Argentina's at home game on 3 July (World Cup) ended 3-2 against Cape Verde, with three goals for and two against. On 28 June, Jordan faced Argentina in World Cup: Argentina won 3-1 away from home, having scored three and conceded one. World Cup, 22 June brought a home meeting with Austria; Argentina won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded.
After the match
Argentina edged past England 2-1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta on 15 July 2026. Anthony Gordon opened the scoring 55 minutes into the game for England, set up by Morgan Rogers, to make it 1-0. Enzo Fernández levelled it late on, in the 85th minute for Argentina, set up by Lionel Messi, to make it 1-1. Lautaro Martínez put Argentina in front in the 92nd minute, set up by Lionel Messi, to make it 2-1. Elliot Anderson (37'), Lisandro Martínez (42'), Christian Romero (51') and Rodrigo de Paul (90') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. England picked up one yellow card. England: five substitutions. Argentina picked up three yellow cards. Argentina: five substitutions. Rodrigo de Paul, on in the 72nd minute, was booked. Lautaro Martínez entered for Argentina at 81 minutes and later scored in minute 92. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. Argentina turned a deficit into victory.