The head-to-head runs to 5 meetings since 1962: 3 to England, 1 to Argentina, 1 drawn, 8-5 on aggregate. Most recently 2002, 1-0 in World Cup. Currently 1701 against 1727 — a 32.7% / 27.1% / 40.2% split.
The four component numbers read 1.33, 1.01, 1.27, 0.87. A 33-place difference in ranking. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Worldwide they stand at 150 and 117 among 4,449 rated sides. A 7.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Rounded, that is 1-1. A decisive result carries 72.9% against 27.1% for the draw. Honours split: 1.33 forward for England, 0.87 back for Argentina. Argentina carries the largest share, 40.2%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Ratings sit 26 apart. Expected goals 1.55-1.73. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 48.4% / 25.3% / 26.4%. The result went the other way. Spread across the three results is 13.1 points. Played and finished 1-2. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.1%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 15 and 8 rated matches respectively. Neither has a percentile edge — around the top 3.4% each.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.