Prior record: 2-0-4 across 6 since 2006. Most recent 2025, 4-5 in UEFA Nations League. Currently 1663 against 1808 — a 18.8% / 22.9% / 58.3% split.
Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The rating gap itself is 145 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Spain holds a 35.4-point edge on the next outcome. The forecast we stored before the match was 41.7% / 26.8% / 31.5%. That one did not come off. In absolute terms: France 1.25/0.80, Spain 1.41/0.62 on attack and defence. With 18 and 19 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. As a single number the model says 1-1. Result on the day: 0-2. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +163 and +308. The model gives 77.1% to someone winning. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.2%. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Goal expectation splits 1.04 to 1.52. Most likely single result is Spain on 58.3%. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Most and least likely outcomes are 39.5 points apart.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
France: five wins over five games; 13 goals scored, one conceded, keeping four clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 2-0 win at home to Morocco on 9 July; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Sweden on 30 June.
Playing at home against Morocco (World Cup), France finished 2-0 on 9 July. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 4 July: France won 1-0 against Paraguay away from home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Sweden in World Cup, France scored three and conceded zero on 30 June; the at home result was 3-0. France's away from home game on 26 June (World Cup) ended 4-1 against Norway, with four goals for and one against. On 22 June, Iraq faced France in World Cup: France won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero.
Spain: five wins over five games; 11 goals scored, one conceded, keeping four clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 2-1 win at home to Belgium on 10 July; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Saudi Arabia on 21 June.
On 10 July, Belgium faced Spain in World Cup: Spain won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. World Cup, 6 July brought an away meeting with Portugal; Spain won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Spain hosted Austria on 2 July (World Cup) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. Uruguay hosted Spain (World Cup) on 27 June. For Spain, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 4-0 was Spain's result against Saudi Arabia on 21 June (World Cup), playing at home; Spain won, with four scored to zero conceded.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 5-4 home win for Spain on 5 June 2025 and a 2-1 home win for Spain on 9 July 2024.
After the match
Spain beat France 2-0 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas on 14 July 2026. Mikel Oyarzabal opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 22nd minute for Spain to make it 1-0. Pedro Porro added to the tally 58 minutes into the game for Spain, set up by Dani Olmo, to make it 2-0. Adrien Rabiot (8'), Cucurella (31') and Kylian Mbappé (86') were booked. Spain won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 58.3%. France are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Spain's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. The card tally for France was two yellow cards. France made five changes. Spain: one yellow card. Spain made five changes. A clean sheet for Spain.