Prior record: 2-0-4 across 6 since 2006. Most recent 2025, 4-5 in UEFA Nations League. Currently 1629 against 1784 — a 17.8% / 22.6% / 59.7% split.
Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The rating gap itself is 155 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Spain holds a 37.1-point edge on the next outcome. The forecast we stored before the match was 41.7% / 26.8% / 31.5%. That one did not come off. In absolute terms: France 1.22/0.91, Spain 1.19/0.53 on attack and defence. With 14 and 15 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. They are 211 places apart on the global list. As a single number the model says 0-1. Result on the day: 0-2. Worldwide they stand at 280 and 69 among 4,449 rated sides. The model gives 77.5% to someone winning. No scoreline stands out; 0-1 only leads on 14.1%. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Goal expectation splits 0.88 to 1.46. Most likely single result is Spain on 59.7%. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Most and least likely outcomes are 41.9 points apart.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.