On record: 2 meetings from 1966, 3-0 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2014, 1-0 in World Cup. Against that, current ratings read 1740 and 1644, a 96-point margin, and the model splits the tie 51.1% / 24.7% / 24.3%.
Scorelines above 8%: 3. Final score: 3-1. The two halves pull apart — Argentina better going forward at 1.64, Switzerland tighter at the back on 0.71. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.7%. Raw profiles are 1.64 and 0.72 against 1.29 and 0.71. A 26.8-point range top to bottom. First to second is a 26.4-point step, Argentina over the draw. Its rounded call is 1-1. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +240 and +144. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. The higher-rated side expects 63.5% of the points; the other side 36.5%. Win-or-lose totals 75.4%; the draw takes the rest. Expected goals sit at 1.56 against 1.26. Neither figure is thin: 11 and 15 matches respectively sit behind them. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The model's preferred outcome is Argentina at 51.1%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
14 goals for and five against accompanied Argentina's five wins across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 3-2 win at home to Egypt (7 July) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Algeria on 17 June.
Argentina's at home game on 7 July (World Cup) ended 3-2 against Egypt, with three goals for and two against. On 3 July, Cape Verde faced Argentina in World Cup: Argentina won 3-2 at home, having scored three and conceded two. World Cup, 28 June brought an away meeting with Jordan; Argentina won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Argentina hosted Austria on 22 June (World Cup) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Algeria travelled to face Argentina (World Cup) on 17 June. For Argentina, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed.
nine goals for and three against accompanied Switzerland's three wins and two draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 0-0 draw at home to Colombia (7 July) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Bosnia-H. on 18 June.
Colombia travelled to face Switzerland (World Cup) on 7 July. For Switzerland, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 2-0 was Switzerland's result against Algeria on 3 July (World Cup), playing at home; Switzerland won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 24 June fixture (World Cup) paired Switzerland with Canada. Switzerland won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Bosnia-H. (World Cup), Switzerland finished 4-1 on 18 June. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition. 13 June: Switzerland drew 1-1 against Qatar away from home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing one.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for Argentina on 1 July 2014.
After the match
Argentina beat Switzerland 3-1 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City on 12 July 2026. Alexis Mac Allister opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Argentina, set up by Lionel Messi, to make it 1-0. Dan Ndoye levelled it 67 minutes into the game for Switzerland, set up by Ricardo Rodriguez, to make it 1-1. Argentina regained the lead through Julián Álvarez in the 112th minute, set up by José Manuel López, to make it 2-1. Lautaro Martínez added to the tally in the 121st minute for Argentina to make it 3-1. Breel Embolo (72') was sent off. Breel Embolo (44'), Thiago Almada (97'), Lautaro Martínez (98') and José Manuel López (114') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Switzerland's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 1.94 to 0.47. three yellow cards went to Argentina. The substitution total for Argentina was six. After coming on for Argentina in minute 85, Lautaro Martínez scored in minute 121 and was booked. Thiago Almada was booked following entry for Argentina in the 91st minute. José Manuel López, on in the 110th minute, provided an assist and was booked. one yellow card and one red card went to Switzerland. The substitution total for Switzerland was six.