Historically: 2 meetings from 1966, 3-0 on aggregate goals, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2014, 1-0 in World Cup. Against that, current ratings read 1727 and 1597, a 130-point margin, and the model splits the tie 56.2% / 23.4% / 20.4%.
Scorelines above 8%: 4. Final score: 3-1. The two halves pull apart — Argentina better going forward at 1.27, Switzerland tighter at the back on 0.85. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.1%. Raw profiles are 1.27 and 0.87 against 1.09 and 0.85. A 35.8-point range top to bottom. First to second is a 32.8-point step, Argentina over the draw. Its rounded call is 1-1. In the global table that is 117 and 391 out of 4,449 rated teams. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. The higher-percentile side clears the top 2.6%; the other the top 8.8%. Win-or-lose totals 76.6%; the draw takes the rest. Expected goals sit at 1.46 against 1.27. Neither figure is thin: 8 and 11 matches respectively sit behind them. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The model's preferred outcome is Argentina at 56.2%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.