Rated 1564 and 1701, these two produce a 19.7% / 23.2% / 57.1% split. There is no trade-off to weigh: England scores at the higher rate (1.33 to 1.17) and concedes at the lower (1.01 to 1.11).
Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Expected goals sit at 1.59 against 1.99. They occupy positions 609 and 150 in a 4,449-team ranking. The three results cover 37.4 points. Norway's number leans on a 6-match sample. They are 459 places apart on the global list. Distance between the ratings: 137 points, wide on this scale. Result on the day: 1-2. The model gives 76.8% to someone winning. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 8.8%. The four component numbers read 1.17, 1.11, 1.33, 1.01. England carries the largest share, 57.1%. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. By share of the rated field: 3.4% and 13.7%. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. England holds a 33.9-point edge on the next outcome.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.