The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 1986: 1 to Spain, 0 to Belgium, 1 drawn, 3-2 on aggregate. Most recently 1990, 2-1 in World Cup. The live ratings are 1808 and 1597, giving 66.8% / 20.6% / 12.6%.
Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +308 and +97. The ratings draw on 19 and 14 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Spain carries the largest share, 66.8%. In absolute terms: Spain 1.41/0.62, Belgium 1.13/0.90 on attack and defence. Result on the day: 2-1. The higher-rated side expects 77.1% of the points; the other side 22.9%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Spread across the three results is 54.2 points. Distance between the ratings: 211 points, wide on this scale. There is no trade-off to weigh: Spain scores at the higher rate (1.41 to 1.13) and concedes at the lower (0.62 to 0.90). Expected goals sit at 1.72 against 0.94. Spain holds a 46.2-point edge on the next outcome. The model gives 79.4% to someone winning. Rounded, that is 1-0. The home side is rated higher. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-0 at 12.0%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
nine goals for and zero against accompanied Spain's four wins and one draw across five outings, keeping five clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 1-0 win away to Portugal (6 July) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Saudi Arabia on 21 June.
Portugal hosted Spain (World Cup) on 6 July. For Spain, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 3-0 was Spain's result against Austria on 2 July (World Cup), playing at home; Spain won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 27 June fixture (World Cup) paired Spain with Uruguay. Spain won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Saudi Arabia (World Cup), Spain finished 4-0 on 21 June. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition. 15 June: Spain drew 0-0 against Cape Verde at home in World Cup, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.
13 goals for and five against accompanied Belgium's three wins and two draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 4-1 win away to USA (7 July) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 away to New Zealand on 27 June.
7 July: Belgium won 4-1 against USA away from home in World Cup, scoring four goals and allowing one. Against Senegal in World Cup, Belgium scored three and conceded two on 1 July; the at home result was 3-2. Belgium's away from home game on 27 June (World Cup) ended 5-1 against New Zealand, with five goals for and one against. On 21 June, Iran faced Belgium in World Cup: Belgium drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. World Cup, 15 June brought a home meeting with Egypt; Belgium drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded.
After the match
Spain edged past Belgium 2-1 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles on 10 July 2026. Fabián Ruiz opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Spain to make it 1-0. Charles De Ketelaere levelled it in the 41st minute for Belgium, set up by Timothy Castagne, to make it 1-1. Spain regained the lead through Mikel Merino late on, in the 88th minute to make it 2-1. Pau Cubarsí (43'), Kevin De Bruyne (85'), Aymeric Laporte (90') and Axel Witsel (90') were booked. Spain's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 66.8% for a win in this pairing. Spain's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.08 to 0.37. Spain picked up two yellow cards. Spain: four substitutions. Mikel Merino, on in the 86th minute, scored in minute 88. Belgium picked up two yellow cards. Belgium: five substitutions. Axel Witsel entered for Belgium at 60 minutes and later was booked.