The head-to-head runs to 2 meetings since 1986: 1 to Spain, 0 to Belgium, 1 drawn, 3-2 on aggregate. Most recently 1990, 2-1 in World Cup. The live ratings are 1784 and 1602, giving 63.2% / 21.6% / 15.2%.
In the global table that is 69 and 363 out of 4,449 rated teams. The ratings draw on 15 and 10 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Spain carries the largest share, 63.2%. In absolute terms: Spain 1.19/0.53, Belgium 1.14/0.87 on attack and defence. Result on the day: 2-1. The higher-percentile side clears the top 1.6%; the other the top 8.2%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Spread across the three results is 48.0 points. Distance between the ratings: 182 points, wide on this scale. There is no trade-off to weigh: Spain scores at the higher rate (1.19 to 1.14) and concedes at the lower (0.53 to 0.87). Expected goals sit at 1.41 against 0.82. Spain holds a 41.6-point edge on the next outcome. The model gives 78.4% to someone winning. Rounded, that is 1-0. The ranking gap is 294 positions. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 15.2%, with 1-1 behind it at 12.4%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.