Rated 1663 and 1595, these two produce a 46.8% / 25.6% / 27.6% split. Both components point the same way, toward France: 1.25 to 1.09 going forward, 0.80 to 0.81 going back.
The match finished 2-0. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 18 and 9 rated matches respectively. 68 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Rounded, that is 1-1. France leads the distribution by 19.2 points over Morocco. Top of the distribution: France, 46.8%. Higher rating: the home side. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2022, 2-0 in World Cup. xG: 1.37 to 1.18. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Win-or-lose totals 74.4%; the draw takes the rest. Most and least likely outcomes are 21.2 points apart. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Raw profiles are 1.25 and 0.80 against 1.09 and 0.81. Expected shares 59.7% against 40.3% on Elo. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +163 and +95. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.6%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
France: five wins over five games; 14 goals scored, two conceded, keeping three clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 1-0 win away to Paraguay on 4 July; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Sweden on 30 June.
France visited Paraguay on 4 July (World Cup) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Sweden travelled to face France (World Cup) on 30 June. For France, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 4-1 was France's result against Norway on 26 June (World Cup), playing away from home; France won, with four scored to one conceded. The 22 June fixture (World Cup) paired France with Iraq. France won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Senegal (World Cup), France finished 3-1 on 16 June. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition.
Morocco were unbeaten in their last five games, with three wins and two draws, scoring ten goals and conceding four. On 4 July, Morocco recorded a 3-0 win visiting Canada.
The 4 July fixture (World Cup) paired Morocco with Canada. Morocco won 3-0 away from home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Netherlands (World Cup), Morocco finished 1-1 on 30 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 24 June: Morocco won 4-2 against Haiti at home in World Cup, scoring four goals and allowing two. Against Scotland in World Cup, Morocco scored one and conceded zero on 19 June; the away from home result was 1-0. Morocco's away from home game on 13 June (World Cup) ended 1-1 against Brazil, with one goal for and one against.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 home win for France on 14 December 2022.
After the match
France beat Morocco 2-0 at Gillette Stadium, Boston on 9 July 2026. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring 60 minutes into the game for France, set up by Desire Doue, to make it 1-0. Ousmane Dembélé added to the tally 66 minutes into the game for France, set up by Michael Olise, to make it 2-0. Issa Diop (63') was booked. France are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 3.69 to 0.14. France made four changes. one yellow card went to Morocco. The substitution total for Morocco was five. A clean sheet for France.