The stalemate carries 26.0% in a 45.3% / 26.0% / 28.8% distribution.
58 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. France leads the distribution by 16.5 points over Morocco. Top 6.3% against top 12.3% on percentile. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Worth noting the base: only 6 rated matches sit behind Morocco's number. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Raw profiles are 1.22 and 0.91 against 1.07 and 0.92. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 280th and 549th of 4,449. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.7%. A 269-place difference in ranking. Top of the distribution: France, 45.3%. The match finished 2-0. Most and least likely outcomes are 19.3 points apart. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2022, 2-0 in World Cup. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Rounded, that is 1-1. xG: 1.52 to 1.31. Both components point the same way, toward France: 1.22 to 1.07 going forward, 0.91 to 0.92 going back. Win-or-lose totals 74.1%; the draw takes the rest.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.