On these ratings there is no favourite to name — 37.1% / 27.8% / 35.1%, nothing above 37.1%.
Its rounded call is 1-1. Colombia: only 5 rated matches. The four component numbers read 1.09, 0.85, 0.92, 0.77. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The model's preferred outcome is Switzerland at 37.1%. A decisive result carries 72.2% against 27.8% for the draw. Both sit in essentially the same percentile band, around the top 8.8%. Final score: 0-0. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 391th and 428th of 4,449. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. 37 places separate them in the global order. The two halves pull apart — Switzerland better going forward at 1.09, Colombia tighter at the back on 0.77. The three outcomes sit within 9.3 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The record shows a single previous meeting, 1994, 0-2 in World Cup; not enough to lean on. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected goals 1.13-1.05. A 7-point difference on the rating scale. Only 2.0 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.