The stalemate carries 26.0% in a 45.2% / 26.0% / 28.8% distribution.
Behind them are 15 and 8 rated matches. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. The four component numbers read 1.29, 0.71, 0.89, 0.72. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The model's preferred outcome is Switzerland at 45.2%. A decisive result carries 74.0% against 26.0% for the draw. By expected share of the points: 58.1% and 41.9%. Final score: 0-0. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +144 and +87. Switzerland sits 16.4 points above the next most likely result. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Switzerland is ahead on each half — 1.29 to 0.89 in attack, 0.71 to 0.72 in defence. Between best and worst outcome there is 19.2 points of daylight. The record shows a single previous meeting, 1994, 0-2 in World Cup; not enough to lean on. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected goals 1.26-0.85. A 57-point difference on the rating scale. Its rounded call is 1-0. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 15.3% — 1-1 is next at 13.0%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and four against accompanied Switzerland's three wins and two draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 2-0 win at home to Algeria (3 July) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Bosnia-H. on 18 June.
World Cup, 3 July brought a home meeting with Algeria; Switzerland won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Switzerland hosted Canada on 24 June (World Cup) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Bosnia-H. travelled to face Switzerland (World Cup) on 18 June. For Switzerland, the score was 4-1: four goals scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Switzerland's result against Qatar on 13 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Switzerland drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 6 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Switzerland with Australia. Switzerland drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one.
seven goals for and one against accompanied Colombia's four wins and one draw across five outings, keeping four clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 1-0 win at home to Ghana (4 July) was their most recent result.
World Cup, 4 July brought a home meeting with Ghana; Colombia won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Colombia hosted Portugal on 27 June (World Cup) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Congo DR travelled to face Colombia (World Cup) on 24 June. For Colombia, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 3-1 was Colombia's result against Uzbekistan on 18 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Colombia won, with three scored to one conceded. The 7 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Colombia with Jordan. Colombia won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero.
After the match
Switzerland and Colombia could not be separated in a goalless draw at BC Place, Vancouver on 7 July 2026. The tie went to penalties, where Switzerland won the shootout 4-3. G. Xhaka (51'), D. Zakaria (59'), L. Suarez (60'), D. Sanchez (95') and M. Muheim (105') were booked. Switzerland's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. three yellow cards went to Switzerland. The substitution total for Switzerland was six. The card tally for Colombia was two yellow cards. Colombia made five changes. Switzerland kept their opponents scoreless. Colombia finished with a clean sheet.