The ratings are far apart — 1740 against 1517, 223 points — and the model turns that into 68.2% / 20.2% / 11.6%.
Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 11 and 8 rated matches respectively. In absolute terms: Argentina 1.64/0.72, Egypt 1.08/0.89 on attack and defence. Versus the 1500 seed: +240 and +17. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. A decisive result carries 79.8% against 20.2% for the draw. The gap between first and second outcome is 48.0 points, Argentina ahead of the draw. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.1% — not a strong call. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The xG line reads 1.97 to 1.05. Argentina carries the largest share, 68.2%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. The higher rating belongs to the home side. 223 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The tie closed out 3-2. Argentina is ahead on each half — 1.64 to 1.08 in attack, 0.72 to 0.89 in defence. The higher-rated side expects 78.3% of the points; the other side 21.7%. The quoted ratings already absorb this match.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Argentina: five wins over five games; 14 goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 3-2 win at home to Cape Verde on 3 July; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Algeria on 17 June.
Playing at home against Cape Verde (World Cup), Argentina finished 3-2 on 3 July. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition. 28 June: Argentina won 3-1 against Jordan away from home in World Cup, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Austria in World Cup, Argentina scored two and conceded zero on 22 June; the at home result was 2-0. Argentina's at home game on 17 June (World Cup) ended 3-0 against Algeria, with three goals for and zero against. On 10 June, Iceland faced Argentina in International Friendlies: Argentina won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero.
Egypt: one win, three draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw away to Australia on 3 July.
On 3 July, Australia faced Egypt in World Cup: Egypt drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. World Cup, 27 June brought a home meeting with Iran; Egypt drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Egypt visited New Zealand on 22 June (World Cup) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Belgium hosted Egypt (World Cup) on 15 June. For Egypt, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 1-2 was Egypt's result against Brazil on 6 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Egypt lost, with one scored to two conceded.
After the match
Argentina edged past Egypt 3-2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta on 7 July 2026. Yasser Ibrahim opened the scoring inside the first 15 minutes for Egypt to make it 1-0. Mostafa Zico added to the tally 67 minutes into the game for Egypt to make it 2-0. Cristian Romero pulled one back 79 minutes into the game for Argentina, set up by Lionel Messi, to make it 1-2. Lionel Messi levelled it late on, in the 83rd minute for Argentina, set up by Gonzalo Montiel, to make it 2-2. Enzo Fernández put Argentina in front in the 92nd minute, set up by Lisandro Martínez, to make it 3-2. Marawan Attia (98') was booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Argentina: 68.2% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Expected goals put the gap at 2.84 to 0.89. five changes were recorded for Argentina. Egypt: one yellow card. Egypt made four changes. The scoring record shows one lead change. The winners, Argentina, had been behind.