The ratings are far apart — 1727 against 1510, 217 points — and the model turns that into 67.5% / 20.4% / 12.1%.
Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. In absolute terms: Argentina 1.27/0.87, Egypt 1.05/1.02 on attack and defence. Global standing: 117 and 1262 of 4,449. Egypt: only 5 rated matches. A decisive result carries 79.6% against 20.4% for the draw. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.9% — not a strong call. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The xG line reads 1.75 to 1.23. Argentina carries the largest share, 67.5%. The gap between first and second outcome is 47.1 points, Argentina ahead of the draw. 1,145 places separate them in the global order. 217 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The tie closed out 3-2. Argentina is ahead on each half — 1.27 to 1.05 in attack, 0.87 to 1.02 in defence. The higher-percentile side clears the top 2.6%; the other the top 28.4%. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The distribution runs from 67.5% down to 12.1%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.