Prior record: 1-0-2 across 3 since 1930. Most recent 2026, 2-5 in International Friendlies. Currently 1553 against 1597 — a 39.4% / 27.3% / 33.4% split.
Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.0%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Neither side holds both halves — USA scores at 1.38, Belgium concedes at 0.90. Elo expected shares: 53.0% and 47.0%. The away side is rated higher. Raw profiles are 1.38 and 0.95 against 1.13 and 0.90. Most and least likely outcomes are 12.1 points apart. First to second is a 6.0-point step, USA over Belgium. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.84 and 1.45. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The two ratings differ by 44 points. Behind them are 9 and 14 rated matches. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +53 and +97. Win-or-lose totals 72.8%; the draw takes the rest. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Result on the day: 1-4. The model's preferred outcome is USA at 39.4%.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
USA came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding six. On 2 July, USA recorded a 2-0 win hosting Bosnia-H.; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Paraguay on 13 June.
USA's at home game on 2 July (World Cup) ended 2-0 against Bosnia-H., with two goals for and zero against. On 26 June, Turkey faced USA in World Cup: USA lost 2-3 away from home, having scored two and conceded three. World Cup, 19 June brought a home meeting with Australia; USA won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. USA hosted Paraguay on 13 June (World Cup) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Germany travelled to face USA (International Friendlies) on 6 June. For USA, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed.
14 goals for and four against accompanied Belgium's three wins and two draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 3-2 win at home to Senegal (1 July) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Tunisia on 6 June.
1 July: Belgium won 3-2 against Senegal at home in World Cup, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against New Zealand in World Cup, Belgium scored five and conceded one on 27 June; the away from home result was 5-1. Belgium's at home game on 21 June (World Cup) ended 0-0 against Iran, with zero goals for and zero against. On 15 June, Egypt faced Belgium in World Cup: Belgium drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 6 June brought a home meeting with Tunisia; Belgium won 5-0, a return of five goals scored and zero conceded.
Previous meetings in our records: a 5-2 away win for Belgium on 28 March and a 2-1 home win for Belgium on 1 July 2014.
After the match
Belgium comfortably beat USA 4-1 at Lumen Field, Seattle on 7 July 2026. Charles De Ketelaere opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Belgium, set up by Nicolas Raskin, to make it 1-0. Malik Tillman levelled it in the 31st minute for USA to make it 1-1. Belgium regained the lead through Charles De Ketelaere in the 33rd minute, set up by Leandro Trossard, to make it 2-1. Hans Vanaken added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Belgium, set up by Charles De Ketelaere, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Belgium extended the lead through Romelu Lukaku in the 93rd minute, set up by Hans Vanaken, to make it 4-1. Weston McKennie (35') and Malik Tillman (69') were booked. On current ratings the model puts Belgium at around 1.45 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. USA's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 International Friendlies and the 2026 World Cup. Expected goals put the gap at 0.63 to 2.01. two yellow cards went to USA. The substitution total for USA was three. Belgium: five substitutions. Hans Vanaken, on in the 21st minute, scored in minute 57 and provided an assist. Romelu Lukaku entered for Belgium at 67 minutes and later scored in minute 93.