Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 1930. Most recent 2014, 1-2 in World Cup. Currently 1504 against 1602 — a 31.8% / 26.8% / 41.4% split.
Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.7%. First to second is a 9.6-point step, Belgium over USA. Neither side holds both halves — USA scores at 1.15, Belgium concedes at 0.87. Percentile-wise: top 8.2% versus top 32.0%. The ranking gap is 1,059 positions. Raw profiles are 1.15 and 1.06 against 1.14 and 0.87. Most and least likely outcomes are 14.6 points apart. The USA figure is drawn from 5 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.50 and 1.64. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The two ratings differ by 98 points. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 1422th and 363th. Win-or-lose totals 73.2%; the draw takes the rest. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Result on the day: 1-4. The model's preferred outcome is Belgium at 41.4%.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.