The head-to-head counts 8 recorded meetings since 2010: 0 to Portugal, 2 to Spain, 6 drawn, 6-8 on aggregate. Most recently 2025, 2-2 in UEFA Nations League. Against that, current ratings read 1613 and 1808, a 195-point margin, and the model splits the tie 14.0% / 21.2% / 64.9%.
The higher rating belongs to the away side. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Attack/defence pairs: 1.13/0.75 and 1.41/0.62. As a single number the model says 0-1. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +113 and +308. It ended 0-1. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Someone wins 78.9% of the time by this model. The xG line reads 0.94 to 1.43. Outcomes span 50.9 points. The higher-rated side expects 75.4% of the points; the other side 24.6%. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 0-1 at 13.4%. Neither component contradicts the other: Spain leads 1.41-1.13 forward and 0.62-0.75 back. The leading outcome clears the second by 43.7 points. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 14 and 19 rated matches respectively.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Portugal: three wins and two draws over five games; ten goals scored, three conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 2-1 win at home to Croatia on 2 July; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Uzbekistan on 23 June.
Against Croatia in World Cup, Portugal scored two and conceded one on 2 July; the at home result was 2-1. Portugal's away from home game on 27 June (World Cup) ended 0-0 against Colombia, with zero goals for and zero against. On 23 June, Uzbekistan faced Portugal in World Cup: Portugal won 5-0 at home, having scored five and conceded zero. World Cup, 17 June brought a home meeting with Congo DR; Portugal drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Portugal hosted Nigeria on 10 June (International Friendlies) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
11 goals for and one against accompanied Spain's four wins and one draw across five outings, keeping four clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 3-0 win at home to Austria (2 July) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Saudi Arabia on 21 June.
Austria travelled to face Spain (World Cup) on 2 July. For Spain, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 1-0 was Spain's result against Uruguay on 27 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Spain won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 21 June fixture (World Cup) paired Spain with Saudi Arabia. Spain won 4-0 at home, netting four goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Cape Verde (World Cup), Spain finished 0-0 on 15 June. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 9 June: Spain won 3-1 against Peru away from home in International Friendlies, scoring three goals and allowing one.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-2 draw at Portugal on 8 June 2025 and a 1-0 away win for Spain on 27 September 2022.
After the match
Spain edged past Portugal 1-0 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas on 6 July 2026. Mikel Merino opened the scoring in the 91st minute for Spain to make it 1-0. Bernardo Silva (89') and Renato Veiga (90') were booked. Spain's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 64.9% for a win in this pairing. Portugal's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Spain's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Portugal: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Portugal. Bernardo Silva entered for Portugal at 83 minutes and later was booked. Spain: three substitutions. Mikel Merino entered for Spain at 85 minutes and later scored in minute 91. Spain conceded no goals.