The head-to-head runs to 8 meetings since 2010: 0 to Portugal, 2 to Spain, 6 drawn, 6-8 on aggregate. Most recently 2025, 2-2 in UEFA Nations League. Against that, current ratings read 1564 and 1784, a 220-point margin, and the model splits the tie 11.8% / 20.3% / 67.9%.
544 places separate them in the global order. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Attack/defence pairs: 0.97/0.74 and 1.19/0.53. As a single number the model says 0-1. They occupy positions 613 and 69 in a 4,449-team ranking. It ended 0-1. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Someone wins 79.7% of the time by this model. The xG line reads 0.70 to 1.20. Outcomes span 56.1 points. The higher-percentile side clears the top 1.6%; the other the top 13.8%. Of the individual scorelines, 0-1 carries the most weight at 17.9% — 0-0 is next at 15.0%. Neither component contradicts the other: Spain leads 1.19-0.97 forward and 0.53-0.74 back. The leading outcome clears the second by 47.6 points. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 10 and 15 rated matches respectively.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.