A 28.4% / 25.9% / 45.8% split off ratings of 1575 and 1701. Honours split: 1.33 forward for England, 0.87 back for Mexico.
Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.2%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Its rounded call is 1-1. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Raw profiles are 1.13 and 0.87 against 1.33 and 1.01. Expected goals 1.69-1.56. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 517th and 150th. Mexico: only 5 rated matches. Just one prior encounter is on file — 1966, 0-2 in World Cup. England carries the largest share, 45.8%. The leading outcome clears the second by 17.4 points. The rating gap itself is 126 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Top 3.4% against top 11.6% on percentile. Between best and worst outcome there is 19.9 points of daylight. They are 367 places apart on the global list. It ended 2-3. Win-or-lose totals 74.2%; the draw takes the rest.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.