The rating gap is 176 points here, and the split follows at 22.5% / 24.1% / 53.4%.
Both components point the same way, toward England: 1.61 to 0.96 going forward, 0.90 to 0.97 going back. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Between best and worst outcome there is 30.9 points of daylight. Win-or-lose totals 75.9%; the draw takes the rest. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 9.6%. Expected goals 1.28-2.11. Just one prior encounter is on file — 1966, 0-2 in World Cup. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +42 and +218. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The leading outcome clears the second by 29.3 points. Expected shares 34.5% against 65.5% on Elo. With 9 and 19 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. It ended 2-3. Raw profiles are 0.96 and 0.97 against 1.61 and 0.90. The rating gap itself is 176 points, which is wide by the model's standards. England carries the largest share, 53.4%. Its rounded call is 1-2.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Mexico were unbeaten in their last five games, with five wins, scoring 13 goals and conceding one, keeping four clean sheets. On 1 July, Mexico recorded a 2-0 win hosting Ecuador; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Serbia on 5 June.
World Cup, 1 July brought a home meeting with Ecuador; Mexico won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Mexico visited Czechia on 25 June (World Cup) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. Korea Republic travelled to face Mexico (World Cup) on 19 June. For Mexico, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 2-0 was Mexico's result against South Africa on 11 June (World Cup), playing at home; Mexico won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 5 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Mexico with Serbia. Mexico won 5-1 at home, netting five goals while conceding one.
11 goals for and three against accompanied England's four wins and one draw across five outings, keeping three clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 2-1 win at home to Congo DR (1 July) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Costa Rica on 10 June.
World Cup, 1 July brought a home meeting with Congo DR; England won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. England visited Panama on 27 June (World Cup) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Ghana travelled to face England (World Cup) on 23 June. For England, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 4-2 was England's result against Croatia on 17 June (World Cup), playing at home; England won, with four scored to two conceded. The 10 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired England with Costa Rica. England won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero.
After the match
England edged past Mexico 3-2 at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City on 6 July 2026. Jude Bellingham opened the scoring in the 36th minute for England, set up by Bukayo Saka, to make it 1-0. Jude Bellingham added to the tally in the 38th minute for England, set up by Harry Kane, to make it 2-0. Julián Quiñones pulled one back in the 42nd minute for Mexico to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, England extended the lead through Harry Kane from the penalty spot 60 minutes into the game to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Mexico reduced the deficit through Raúl Jiménez from the penalty spot 69 minutes into the game to make it 2-3. Jarell Quansah (54') was sent off. Declan Rice (1'), Marc Guéhi (68'), Jorge Sánchez (71'), Nico O'Reilly (72'), Johan Vásquez (90') and Jordan Henderson (90') were booked. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.87 to 1.55. Mexico: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Mexico. The card tally for England was four yellow cards and one red card. four changes were recorded for England.