An unusually heavy draw share here at 26.1%.
Final score: 1-2. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +88 and +34. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. A 54-point difference on the rating scale. Win-or-lose totals 73.9%; the draw takes the rest. Brazil is ahead on each half — 1.32 to 1.15 in attack, 0.87 to 1.19 in defence. Neither figure is thin: 8 and 10 matches respectively sit behind them. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 9.4% — not a strong call. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's preferred outcome is Brazil at 44.7%. In absolute terms: Brazil 1.32/0.87, Norway 1.15/1.19 on attack and defence. Higher rating: the home side. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 57.7% to 42.3%. Expected goals sit at 2.12 against 1.35. They have met once on record — 1998, 1-2 in World Cup, which is too little history to weigh. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Most and least likely outcomes are 18.6 points apart.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Brazil were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring 11 goals and conceding three. On 29 June, Brazil recorded a 2-1 win hosting Japan; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Scotland on 24 June.
29 June: Brazil won 2-1 against Japan at home in World Cup, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Scotland in World Cup, Brazil scored three and conceded zero on 24 June; the away from home result was 3-0. Brazil's at home game on 20 June (World Cup) ended 3-0 against Haiti, with three goals for and zero against. On 13 June, Morocco faced Brazil in World Cup: Brazil drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 6 June brought a home meeting with Egypt; Brazil won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
Norway came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding nine. A 2-1 win away to Ivory Coast (30 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Iraq on 16 June.
Ivory Coast hosted Norway (World Cup) on 30 June. For Norway, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-4 was Norway's result against France on 26 June (World Cup), playing at home; Norway lost, with one scored to four conceded. The 23 June fixture (World Cup) paired Norway with Senegal. Norway won 3-2 at home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Iraq (World Cup), Norway finished 4-1 on 16 June. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition. 7 June: Norway drew 1-1 against Morocco away from home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing one.
After the match
Norway edged past Brazil 2-1 at MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey on 5 July 2026. Neymar (90') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make Brazil slightly the stronger side, by 54 rating points over Norway, even though it was Norway who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Norway only a 29.2% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 2.61 to 1.05. The card tally for Brazil was one yellow card. Brazil made four changes. Neymar was booked following entry for Brazil in the 68th minute. Norway made four changes. Andreas Schjelderup, on in the 46th minute, provided an assist.