This is a genuine coin-flip by the model's reckoning — 36.3% / 27.9% / 35.8%, with nothing above 36.3%.
Final score: 1-2. They occupy positions 594 and 609 in a 4,449-team ranking. Brazil's side of that rests on 5 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. A 2-point difference on the rating scale. Win-or-lose totals 72.1%; the draw takes the rest. The edge is split: Norway scores at the higher rate (1.17 to 1.13), Brazil concedes at the lower (0.90 to 1.11). Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. A 0.5-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.7% — not a strong call. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's preferred outcome is Brazil at 36.3%. In absolute terms: Brazil 1.13/0.90, Norway 1.17/1.11 on attack and defence. A 15-place difference in ranking. Neither has a percentile edge — around the top 13.7% each. Expected goals sit at 1.69 against 1.42. They have met once on record — 1998, 1-2 in World Cup, which is too little history to weigh. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.