1496 plays 1571; the model splits it 26.6% / 25.4% / 48.0%. Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 1.07 versus 1.07 in attack and 0.98 versus 0.92 at the back.
No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. A 22.6-point range top to bottom. Morocco is the higher-percentile side, top 12.3% against top 39.1%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 48.0% goes to Morocco, the model's lean. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.1% leads, but only just. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2022, 1-2 in World Cup; not enough to lean on. The gap between first and second outcome is 21.4 points, Morocco ahead of Canada. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 75 points. Only 5 rated matches back the Canada figure. Its point estimate is 1-1. The four component numbers read 1.07, 0.98, 1.07, 0.92. The ranking gap is 1,191 positions. They occupy positions 1740 and 549 in a 4,449-team ranking. A decisive result carries 74.6% against 25.4% for the draw.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.