1511 plays 1595; the model splits it 25.6% / 25.1% / 49.3%. Both components point the same way, toward Morocco: 1.09 to 1.01 going forward, 0.81 to 0.86 going back.
The gap between first and second outcome is 23.7 points, Morocco ahead of Canada. A 24.2-point range top to bottom. Morocco's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 61.9%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 49.3% goes to Morocco, the model's lean. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 13.0% leads, but only just. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2022, 1-2 in World Cup; not enough to lean on. Its point estimate is 1-1. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 84 points. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 8 and 9 matches. The four component numbers read 1.01, 0.86, 1.09, 0.81. The away side is rated higher. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +11 and +95. A decisive result carries 74.9% against 25.1% for the draw.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Canada came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding four. On 28 June, Canada recorded a 1-0 win visiting South Africa; their biggest win in that spell was 6-0 at home to Qatar on 18 June.
South Africa hosted Canada (World Cup) on 28 June. For Canada, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-2 was Canada's result against Switzerland on 24 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Canada lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 18 June fixture (World Cup) paired Canada with Qatar. Canada won 6-0 at home, netting six goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Bosnia-H. (World Cup), Canada finished 1-1 on 12 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 5 June: Canada drew 1-1 against Rep. Of Ireland at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing one.
Morocco were unbeaten in their last five games, with two wins and three draws, scoring eight goals and conceding five. On 30 June, Morocco recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Netherlands.
30 June: Morocco drew 1-1 against Netherlands away from home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Haiti in World Cup, Morocco scored four and conceded two on 24 June; the at home result was 4-2. Morocco's away from home game on 19 June (World Cup) ended 1-0 against Scotland, with one goal for and zero against. On 13 June, Brazil faced Morocco in World Cup: Morocco drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 7 June brought a home meeting with Norway; Morocco drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 away win for Morocco on 1 December 2022.
After the match
Morocco comfortably beat Canada 3-0 at NRG Stadium, Houston on 4 July 2026. Azzedine Ounahi opened the scoring 50 minutes into the game for Morocco, set up by Achraf Hakimi, to make it 1-0. Azzedine Ounahi added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for Morocco, set up by Brahim Diaz, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Morocco extended the lead through Soufiane Rahimi in the 98th minute, set up by Brahim Diaz, to make it 3-0. 8 players were booked, among them Redouane Halhal (20'), Achraf Hakimi (40'), Richie Laryea (40'), Jonathan David (43'), Azzedine Ounahi (44') and Bilal El Khannouss (45'). Every goal came after the interval. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.84 to 0.82. four yellow cards went to Canada. Canada: five substitutions. Cyle Larin, on in the 63rd minute, was booked. four yellow cards went to Morocco. The substitution total for Morocco was five. Soufiane Rahimi entered for Morocco at 22 minutes and later scored in minute 98. Morocco conceded no goals.