They have 3 previous meetings dating to 1958, 3-13 on goals. Last time: 2017, 0-5 in Friendlies. History aside, the live ratings of 1483 and 1629 drive a 18.7% / 22.9% / 58.4% distribution.
It ended 0-1. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. 2,132 places separate them in the global order. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Paraguay's number leans on a 5-match sample. The four component numbers read 0.85, 0.96, 1.22, 0.91. The model's preferred outcome is France at 58.4%. The higher-percentile side clears the top 6.3%; the other the top 54.2%. Distance between the ratings: 146 points, wide on this scale. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Expected goals 1.04-1.58. Most and least likely outcomes are 39.7 points apart. First to second is a 35.5-point step, France over the draw. France holds both halves of the profile — 1.22 against 0.85 for scoring, 0.91 against 0.96 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 12.0%. 77.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. They occupy positions 2412 and 280 in a 4,449-team ranking.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.