On file: 3 previous meetings dating to 1958, 3-13 on goals. Last time: 2017, 0-5 in Friendlies. History aside, the live ratings of 1505 and 1663 drive a 17.5% / 22.5% / 60.1% distribution.
It ended 0-1. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The higher rating belongs to the away side. First to second is a 37.6-point step, France over the draw. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. The four component numbers read 0.88, 0.85, 1.25, 0.80. The model's preferred outcome is France at 60.1%. The higher-rated side expects 71.3% of the points; the other side 28.7%. Distance between the ratings: 158 points, wide on this scale. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Expected goals 0.94-1.43. Most and least likely outcomes are 42.6 points apart. The single-scoreline output is 0-1. France holds both halves of the profile — 1.25 against 0.88 for scoring, 0.80 against 0.85 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Flat distribution — 0-1 tops it at just 13.4%. 77.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 7 and 18 rated matches respectively.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Paraguay: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, five conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 1-1 draw away to Germany on 29 June; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Nicaragua on 5 June.
Playing away from home against Germany (World Cup), Paraguay finished 1-1 on 29 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 26 June: Paraguay drew 0-0 against Australia at home in World Cup, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Turkey in World Cup, Paraguay scored one and conceded zero on 20 June; the away from home result was 1-0. Paraguay's away from home game on 13 June (World Cup) ended 1-4 against USA, with one goal for and four against. On 5 June, Nicaragua faced Paraguay in International Friendlies: Paraguay won 4-0 at home, having scored four and conceded zero.
16 goals for and three against accompanied France's five wins across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 3-0 win at home to Sweden (30 June) was their most recent result.
France's at home game on 30 June (World Cup) ended 3-0 against Sweden, with three goals for and zero against. On 26 June, Norway faced France in World Cup: France won 4-1 away from home, having scored four and conceded one. World Cup, 22 June brought a home meeting with Iraq; France won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. France hosted Senegal on 16 June (World Cup) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Northern Ireland travelled to face France (International Friendlies) on 8 June. For France, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed.
After the match
France edged past Paraguay 1-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia on 4 July 2026. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring from the penalty spot 70 minutes into the game for France to make it 1-0. Bradley Barcola (19'), Manu Koné (81') and Michael Olise (90') were booked. France's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 60.1% for a win in this pairing. France are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 0.13 to 1.45. Paraguay made four changes. France picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for France was two. France kept their opponents scoreless.