Rated 1456 and 1529, these two produce a 27.0% / 25.5% / 47.5% split. Neither component contradicts the other: Saudi Arabia leads 0.95-0.92 forward and 0.76-1.09 back.
Its point estimate is 0-1. Goal expectation splits 0.95 to 1.40. Higher rating: the away side. Saudi Arabia holds a 20.5-point edge on the next outcome. Someone wins 74.5% of the time by this model. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Played and finished 0-0. Spread across the three results is 22.0 points. Saudi Arabia carries the largest share, 47.5%. By expected share of the points: 39.6% and 60.4%. No scoreline stands out; 0-1 only leads on 13.4%. A 6-match base for Cape Verde. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -44 and +29. The four component numbers read 0.92, 1.09, 0.95, 0.76. Distance between the ratings: 73 points, moderate on this scale. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Cape Verde: two wins and three draws over five games; eight goals scored, two conceded, keeping four clean sheets, unbeaten. Uruguay were their latest opponents, away on 21 June: a 2-2 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Bermuda on 6 June.
Against Uruguay in World Cup, Cape Verde scored two and conceded two on 21 June; the away from home result was 2-2. Cape Verde's away from home game on 15 June (World Cup) ended 0-0 against Spain, with zero goals for and zero against. On 6 June, Bermuda faced Cape Verde in International Friendlies: Cape Verde won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 31 May brought a home meeting with Serbia; Cape Verde won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Cape Verde hosted South Africa on 3 February 2024 (Africa Cup of Nations) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Cape Verde 34th after two matches and two points.
Saudi Arabia's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 7 conceded. Spain were their latest opponents, away on 21 June: a 4-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Puerto Rico on 5 June.
Against Spain in World Cup, Saudi Arabia scored zero and conceded four on 21 June; the away from home result was 0-4. Saudi Arabia's at home game on 15 June (World Cup) ended 1-1 against Uruguay, with one goal for and one against. On 9 June, Senegal faced Saudi Arabia in International Friendlies: Saudi Arabia drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 5 June brought an away meeting with Puerto Rico; Saudi Arabia won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Saudi Arabia visited Ecuador on 31 May (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded.
one point in two matches put Saudi Arabia 40th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia could not be separated in a goalless draw at NRG Stadium, Houston on 27 June 2026. Saud Abdulhamid (4'), Wagner Pina (9'), Nasser Al Dawsari (67') and Firas Al Brikan (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Saudi Arabia are 73 points stronger than Cape Verde. Saudi Arabia are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Gulf Cup of Nations. The card tally for Cape Verde was one yellow card. Cape Verde made five changes. Saudi Arabia picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Saudi Arabia was five. A clean sheet for Cape Verde. Saudi Arabia conceded no goals.