The caveat comes first here. Saudi Arabia has only 3 rated matches behind their number, so while the model returns 1485 against 1473 and a 37.8% / 27.6% / 34.6% split, that precision is not earned yet.
Only 3.2 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.8%. The four component numbers read 0.95, 0.99, 0.87, 1.04. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Cape Verde carries the largest share, 37.8%. All three results are bunched inside 10.2 points. Distance between the ratings: 12 points, narrow on this scale. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Its point estimate is 1-1. Neither component contradicts the other: Cape Verde leads 0.95-0.87 forward and 0.99-1.04 back. In the global table that is 2266 and 2929 out of 4,449 rated teams. A 3-match base for Saudi Arabia. Goal expectation splits 1.33 to 1.17. Someone wins 72.4% of the time by this model. By share of the rated field: 50.9% and 65.8%. A 663-place difference in ranking.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.