On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 1950, 2-2 on goals. Last time: 1990, 0-0 in World Cup. History aside, the live ratings of 1508 and 1808 drive a 6.4% / 17.5% / 76.1% distribution.
Spain leads the distribution by 58.6 points over the draw. Most likely single result is Spain on 76.1%. 82.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Most and least likely outcomes are 69.7 points apart. Its point estimate is 1-1. Result on the day: 0-1. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The away side is rated higher. The rating gap itself is 300 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Attack/defence pairs: 1.26/1.03 and 1.41/0.62. Goal expectation splits 1.05 to 1.97. Spain holds both halves of the profile — 1.41 against 1.26 for scoring, 0.62 against 1.03 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Elo expected shares: 15.1% and 84.9%. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Only 6 rated matches back the Uruguay figure. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +8 and +308.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Uruguay's previous five results comprised five draws. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 6 conceded, with no defeats. Cape Verde were their latest opponents, at home on 21 June: a 2-2 draw.
Uruguay hosted Cape Verde on 21 June (World Cup) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Saudi Arabia hosted Uruguay (World Cup) on 15 June. For Uruguay, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 0-0 was Uruguay's result against Algeria on 31 March (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Uruguay drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 27 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Uruguay with England. Uruguay drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Canada (Copa America), Uruguay finished 2-2 on 14 July 2024. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Uruguay 33rd after two matches and two points.
Spain were unbeaten in their last five games, with two wins and three draws, scoring eight goals and conceding two, keeping three clean sheets. On 21 June, Spain recorded a 4-0 win hosting Saudi Arabia.
Spain's at home game on 21 June (World Cup) ended 4-0 against Saudi Arabia, with four goals for and zero against. On 15 June, Cape Verde faced Spain in World Cup: Spain drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 9 June brought an away meeting with Peru; Spain won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Spain hosted Iraq on 4 June (International Friendlies) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Egypt travelled to face Spain (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Spain, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
Spain stood 16th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with four points from two matches.
After the match
Spain edged past Uruguay 1-0 at Estadio Akron, Guadalajara on 27 June 2026. Álex Baena opened the scoring in the 42nd minute for Spain, set up by Marcos Llorente, to make it 1-0. Agustín Canobbio (90') was sent off. Álex Baena (46'), Juan Sanabria (54'), Guillermo Varela (58') and Nicolas de la Cruz (90') were booked. 76.1% is Spain's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Spain's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Spain won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win. The card tally for Uruguay was three yellow cards and one red card. four changes were recorded for Uruguay. Nicolas de la Cruz was booked following entry for Uruguay in the 45th minute. one yellow card went to Spain. The substitution total for Spain was five. Spain kept their opponents scoreless.