The draw carries unusual weight here, 26.2% against 44.3% and 29.5%.
Most likely single result is Uruguay on 44.3%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Uruguay leads the distribution by 14.8 points over Cape Verde. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 52 points. The Uruguay figure is drawn from 6 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +8 and -44. A 18.1-point range top to bottom. Elo expected shares: 57.4% and 42.6%. Win-or-lose totals 73.8%; the draw takes the rest. Its point estimate is 1-1. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.3%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Uruguay scores at the higher rate (1.26 to 0.92) and concedes at the lower (1.03 to 1.09). Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.86 and 1.29. The four component numbers read 1.26, 1.03, 0.92, 1.09. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Result on the day: 2-2.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
four goals for and five against accompanied Uruguay's four draws and one defeat across five outings, a winless run. A 1-1 draw away to Saudi Arabia (15 June) was their most recent result.
World Cup, 15 June brought an away meeting with Saudi Arabia; Uruguay drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Uruguay visited Algeria on 31 March (International Friendlies) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. England hosted Uruguay (International Friendlies) on 27 March. For Uruguay, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 2-2 was Uruguay's result against Canada on 14 July 2024 (Copa America), playing away from home; Uruguay drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 11 July 2024 fixture (Copa America) paired Uruguay with Colombia. Uruguay lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one.
Uruguay stood 27th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with one point from one match.
Cape Verde's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 0 conceded, keeping five clean sheets, with no defeats. Latest: a 0-0 draw away to Spain on 15 June; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Bermuda on 6 June.
0-0 was Cape Verde's result against Spain on 15 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Cape Verde drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 6 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Cape Verde with Bermuda. Cape Verde won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Serbia (International Friendlies), Cape Verde finished 3-0 on 31 May. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 3 February 2024: Cape Verde drew 0-0 against South Africa at home in Africa Cup of Nations, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Mauritania in Africa Cup of Nations, Cape Verde scored one and conceded zero on 29 January 2024; the at home result was 1-0.
one point in one match put Cape Verde 31st in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Uruguay and Cape Verde drew 2-2 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami on 21 June 2026. Kevin Pina opened the scoring in the 21st minute for Cape Verde to make it 1-0. Maximiliano Araújo levelled it in the 44th minute for Uruguay to make it 1-1. Agustín Canobbio put Uruguay in front 51 minutes into the game, set up by Maximiliano Araújo, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Cape Verde drew level through Hélio Varela 61 minutes into the game to make it 2-2. Sidny Lopes Cabral (5'), Rodrigo Bentancur (20'), Mathías Olivera (58') and Diney Borges (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Uruguay are 52 points stronger than Cape Verde. Expected goals put the gap at 2.32 to 0.88. Uruguay picked up two yellow cards. Uruguay: three substitutions. Cape Verde: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Cape Verde. Hélio Varela scored in minute 61 following entry for Cape Verde in the 59th minute. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence.