Uruguay has 3 rated matches behind their rating — thin. The split reads 36.3% / 27.9% / 35.7%.
Most likely single result is Uruguay on 36.3%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. They are 132 places apart on the global list. The leading two outcomes sit 0.6 points apart, which is not a real preference. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 2 points. The Uruguay figure is drawn from 3 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. They occupy positions 2134 and 2266 in a 4,449-team ranking. The three outcomes sit within 8.4 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Percentile-wise: top 48.0% versus top 50.9%. Win-or-lose totals 72.0%; the draw takes the rest. Its point estimate is 1-1. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.7%. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 0.95 against 0.95, conceding rates of 1.00 against 0.99. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.28 and 1.28. The four component numbers read 0.95, 1.00, 0.95, 0.99.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.