With only 3 rated matches for Saudi Arabia, treat the 77.1% / 17.1% / 5.8% split as provisional.
Expected goals sit at 1.67 against 0.63. The match finished 4-0. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2006, 1-0 in World Cup; not enough to lean on. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Spain is the higher-percentile side, top 1.6% against top 65.8%. The distribution runs from 77.1% down to 5.8%. 1-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 16.8%. Most likely single result is Spain on 77.1%. Only 3 rated matches back the Saudi Arabia figure. 82.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Both components point the same way, toward Spain: 1.19 to 0.87 going forward, 0.53 to 1.04 going back. Worldwide they stand at 69 and 2929 among 4,449 rated sides. They are 2,860 places apart on the global list. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 311 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Rounded, that is 1-0. Attack/defence pairs: 1.19/0.53 and 0.87/1.04. First to second is a 60.0-point step, Spain over the draw.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.