1529 against 1508 gives the model nothing to work with: 39.3% / 27.3% / 33.4%.
A 12.0-point range covers every outcome here. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.26 to 0.95 says Uruguay, 0.76 to 1.03 says Saudi Arabia. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Saudi Arabia carries the largest share, 39.3%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.5%. Final score: 1-1. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +29 and +8. Someone wins 72.7% of the time by this model. The underlying goal expectation is 1.33 for Saudi Arabia, 1.30 for Uruguay. Uruguay: only 6 rated matches. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Elo expected shares: 53.0% and 47.0%. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 21 points. Raw profiles are 0.95 and 0.76 against 1.26 and 1.03. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2018, 0-1 in World Cup; not enough to lean on.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Saudi Arabia's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 8 conceded. Senegal were their latest opponents, at home on 9 June: a 0-0 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Puerto Rico on 5 June.
On 9 June, Senegal faced Saudi Arabia in International Friendlies: Saudi Arabia drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 5 June brought an away meeting with Puerto Rico; Saudi Arabia won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Saudi Arabia visited Ecuador on 31 May (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Serbia hosted Saudi Arabia (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Saudi Arabia, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 0-4 was Saudi Arabia's result against Egypt on 27 March (International Friendlies), playing at home; Saudi Arabia lost, with zero scored to four conceded.
Uruguay arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording four draws and one defeat, scoring three goals and conceding four, failing to score in three of those games. On 31 March, Uruguay recorded a 0-0 draw visiting Algeria.
The 31 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Uruguay with Algeria. Uruguay drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against England (International Friendlies), Uruguay finished 1-1 on 27 March. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 14 July 2024: Uruguay drew 2-2 against Canada away from home in Copa America, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Colombia in Copa America, Uruguay scored zero and conceded one on 11 July 2024; the at home result was 0-1. Uruguay's at home game on 7 July 2024 (Copa America) ended 0-0 against Brazil, with zero goals for and zero against.
The last recorded meeting was a 1-0 home win for Uruguay on 20 June 2018.
After the match
Saudi Arabia and Uruguay drew 1-1 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami on 15 June 2026. Abdulelah Al Amri opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Saudi Arabia to make it 1-0. Maximiliano Araújo levelled it 80 minutes into the game for Uruguay to make it 1-1. Abdulelah Al Amri (44') was booked. Saudi Arabia are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Gulf Cup of Nations. Saudi Arabia picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Saudi Arabia was five. The substitution total for Uruguay was five.