The caveat comes first here. Saudi Arabia has only 3 rated matches behind their number, so while the model returns 1473 against 1487 and a 34.3% / 27.5% / 38.2% split, that precision is not earned yet.
A 10.7-point range covers every outcome here. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Both components point the same way, toward Uruguay: 0.95 to 0.87 going forward, 1.00 to 1.04 going back. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Uruguay carries the largest share, 38.2%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.8%. Final score: 1-1. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 2929th and 2134th of 4,449. Someone wins 72.5% of the time by this model. The underlying goal expectation is 1.17 for Saudi Arabia, 1.33 for Uruguay. Saudi Arabia: only 3 rated matches. They are 795 places apart on the global list. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Percentile-wise: top 48.0% versus top 65.8%. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 14 points. Raw profiles are 0.87 and 1.04 against 0.95 and 1.00.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.