299 points is a wide separation: Spain rates 1784, Cape Verde 1485. That resolves to 76.1% / 17.5% / 6.4%.
One sits in the top 1.6%, the other the top 50.9%. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 69th and 2266th of 4,449. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Most likely single result is Spain on 76.1%. Rounded, that is 1-0. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.60 and 0.68. Spread across the three results is 69.7 points. Spain is ahead on each half — 1.19 to 0.95 in attack, 0.53 to 0.99 in defence. Worth noting the base: only 4 rated matches sit behind Cape Verde's number. First to second is a 58.6-point step, Spain over the draw. They are 2,197 places apart on the global list. Raw profiles are 1.19 and 0.53 against 0.95 and 0.99. The model gives 82.5% to someone winning. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 16.3%, clear of 2-0 on 13.1%. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Ratings sit 299 apart. Result on the day: 0-0.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.