352 points is a wide separation: Spain rates 1808, Cape Verde 1456. That resolves to 80.5% / 15.7% / 3.8%.
The higher rating expects 88.4% of the points, the lower 11.6%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +308 and -44. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Most likely single result is Spain on 80.5%. Rounded, that is 2-0. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.08 and 0.77. Spread across the three results is 76.7 points. Spain is ahead on each half — 1.41 to 0.92 in attack, 0.62 to 1.09 in defence. Worth noting the base: only 6 rated matches sit behind Cape Verde's number. First to second is a 64.8-point step, Spain over the draw. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Raw profiles are 1.41 and 0.62 against 0.92 and 1.09. The model gives 84.3% to someone winning. 2-0 leads the scorelines at 12.5% — not a strong call. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Ratings sit 352 apart. Result on the day: 0-0.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Spain: two wins and three draws over five games; nine goals scored, four conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 3-1 win away to Peru on 9 June; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Serbia on 27 March.
Playing away from home against Peru (International Friendlies), Spain finished 3-1 on 9 June. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 4 June: Spain drew 1-1 against Iraq at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Egypt in International Friendlies, Spain scored zero and conceded zero on 31 March; the at home result was 0-0. Spain's at home game on 27 March (International Friendlies) ended 3-0 against Serbia, with three goals for and zero against. On 8 June 2025, Portugal faced Spain in UEFA Nations League: Spain drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two.
Cape Verde's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 2 conceded, keeping four clean sheets, with no defeats. Latest: a 3-0 win at home to Bermuda on 6 June.
3-0 was Cape Verde's result against Bermuda on 6 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Cape Verde won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 31 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Cape Verde with Serbia. Cape Verde won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against South Africa (Africa Cup of Nations), Cape Verde finished 0-0 on 3 February 2024. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 29 January 2024: Cape Verde won 1-0 against Mauritania at home in Africa Cup of Nations, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Egypt in Africa Cup of Nations, Cape Verde scored two and conceded two on 22 January 2024; the at home result was 2-2.
After the match
Spain and Cape Verde could not be separated in a goalless draw at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta on 15 June 2026. Sidny Lopes Cabral (16') and Pedri (90') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Spain 352 points stronger than Cape Verde. Spain's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.1 to 0.2. Spain: one yellow card. Spain made four changes. Cape Verde: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Cape Verde. A clean sheet for Spain. Cape Verde finished with a clean sheet.