Before the numbers, the caveat: 3 rated matches behind Iran. On that base the model returns 1510 against 1502 and a 37.3% / 27.7% / 35.0% split.
In absolute terms: Egypt 1.05/1.02, Iran 0.95/0.95 on attack and defence. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 1262th and 1495th. A 3-match base for Iran. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The three outcomes sit within 9.6 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.4%. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. By share of the rated field: 28.4% and 33.6%. Rating separation comes to 8 points. A 233-place difference in ranking. Someone wins 72.3% of the time by this model. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. One half each — Egypt in front on 1.05, Iran behind on 0.95. Point estimate: 1-1. Most likely single result is Egypt on 37.3%. Final score: 1-1. Goal expectation splits 1.35 to 1.31. The top two outcomes are within 2.3 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.