The caveat comes first here. New Zealand has only 3 rated matches behind their number, so while the model returns 1419 against 1602 and a 15.1% / 21.6% / 63.3% split, that precision is not earned yet.
Scorelines above 8%: 4. 3,718 places separate them in the global order. Belgium holds both halves of the profile — 1.14 against 0.99 for scoring, 0.87 against 1.26 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 183 points. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Outcomes span 48.2 points. One sits in the top 8.2%, the other the top 91.7%. Most likely single result is Belgium on 63.3%. Worldwide they stand at 4081 and 363 among 4,449 rated sides. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Expected goals 1.17-1.93. Played and finished 1-5. Belgium sits 41.7 points above the next most likely result. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.2%. Raw profiles are 0.99 and 1.26 against 1.14 and 0.87.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.