Belgium enters 160 points clear of New Zealand on rating, which the model reads as 17.3% / 22.4% / 60.3%.
Scorelines above 8%: 3. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Belgium holds both halves of the profile — 1.13 against 1.05 for scoring, 0.90 against 1.19 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 160 points. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Belgium sits 37.9 points above the next most likely result. Outcomes span 43.0 points. The higher rating expects 71.5% of the points, the lower 28.5%. Most likely single result is Belgium on 60.3%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -63 and +97. Behind them are 7 and 14 rated matches. Expected goals 1.28-1.81. Played and finished 1-5. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.5%. Raw profiles are 1.05 and 1.19 against 1.13 and 0.90. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. The model gives 77.6% to someone winning.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
New Zealand arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording two draws and three defeats, scoring three goals and conceding ten, failing to score in three of those games. On 22 June, New Zealand recorded a 3-1 defeat hosting Egypt.
New Zealand's at home game on 22 June (World Cup) ended 1-3 against Egypt, with one goal for and three against. On 16 June, Iran faced New Zealand in World Cup: New Zealand drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. International Friendlies, 6 June brought an away meeting with England; New Zealand lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. New Zealand visited Haiti on 3 June (International Friendlies) and lost 0-4; their goals totalled zero, compared with four conceded. Paraguay hosted New Zealand (World Cup) on 24 June 2010. For New Zealand, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
New Zealand: 39th, one point, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Belgium's previous five results comprised two wins and three draws. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 2 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Iran were their latest opponents, at home on 21 June: a 0-0 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Tunisia on 6 June.
Against Iran in World Cup, Belgium scored zero and conceded zero on 21 June; the at home result was 0-0. Belgium's at home game on 15 June (World Cup) ended 1-1 against Egypt, with one goal for and one against. On 6 June, Tunisia faced Belgium in International Friendlies: Belgium won 5-0 at home, having scored five and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 2 June brought an away meeting with Croatia; Belgium won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Belgium visited Mexico on 1 April (International Friendlies) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.
two points in two matches put Belgium 35th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Belgium overwhelmed New Zealand 5-1 at BC Place, Vancouver on 27 June 2026. Leandro Trossard opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Belgium to make it 1-0. Leandro Trossard added to the tally 50 minutes into the game for Belgium to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Belgium extended the lead through Kevin De Bruyne 66 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Elijah Just got one back late on, in the 84th minute for New Zealand to make it 1-3. Romelu Lukaku scored the 5th goal for Belgium late on, in the 86th minute as they extended the lead, set up by Nicolas Raskin, to make it 4-1. Belgium extended the lead in the 94th minute; the match's 6th goal came through Alexis Saelemaekers, set up by Romelu Lukaku, to make it 5-1. Marko Stamenic (46') and Elijah Just (56') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Belgium 160 points stronger than New Zealand. 3 gols came after the 80th minute. Belgium: 60.3% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. On current ratings the model puts Belgium at around 1.81 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Expected goals put the gap at 0.24 to 3.64. New Zealand: two yellow cards. New Zealand made five changes. five changes were recorded for Belgium. Alexis Saelemaekers entered for Belgium at 72 minutes and later scored in minute 94. After coming on for Belgium in minute 85, Nicolas Raskin provided an assist. Romelu Lukaku scored in minute 86 and provided an assist following entry for Belgium in the 85th minute.