1437 plays 1517; the model splits it 26.1% / 25.2% / 48.6%. Egypt holds both halves of the profile — 1.08 against 1.05 for scoring, 0.89 against 1.19 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
With 7 and 8 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The tie closed out 1-3. Rounded, that is 1-1. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.9%. Most and least likely outcomes are 23.4 points apart. Top of the distribution: Egypt, 48.6%. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. A 80-point spread sits between the two figures. The gap between first and second outcome is 22.5 points, Egypt ahead of New Zealand. Raw profiles are 1.05 and 1.19 against 1.08 and 0.89. By expected share of the points: 38.7% and 61.3%. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A decisive result carries 74.7% against 25.2% for the draw. On expected goals the model has it 1.27 against 1.73. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2024, 0-1 in Friendlies. Higher rating: the away side. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -63 and +17.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
New Zealand: three draws and two defeats over five games; three goals scored, eight conceded, failing to score in three of those games, without a win. Latest: a 2-2 draw away to Iran on 16 June.
New Zealand visited Iran on 16 June (World Cup) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. England hosted New Zealand (International Friendlies) on 6 June. For New Zealand, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 0-4 was New Zealand's result against Haiti on 3 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; New Zealand lost, with zero scored to four conceded. The 24 June 2010 fixture (World Cup) paired New Zealand with Paraguay. New Zealand drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Italy (World Cup), New Zealand finished 1-1 on 20 June 2010. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
one point in one match put New Zealand 28th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
Egypt came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding three, keeping three clean sheets. On 15 June, Egypt recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Belgium; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Saudi Arabia on 27 March.
The 15 June fixture (World Cup) paired Egypt with Belgium. Egypt drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Brazil (International Friendlies), Egypt finished 1-2 on 6 June. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 28 May: Egypt won 1-0 against Russia at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Spain in International Friendlies, Egypt scored zero and conceded zero on 31 March; the away from home result was 0-0. Egypt's away from home game on 27 March (International Friendlies) ended 4-0 against Saudi Arabia, with four goals for and zero against.
Egypt stood 29th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with one point from one match.
After the match
Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 at BC Place, Vancouver on 22 June 2026. Finn Surman opened the scoring inside the first 15 minutes for New Zealand, set up by Tim Payne, to make it 1-0. Mostafa Ziko levelled it 58 minutes into the game for Egypt, set up by Mohamed Hany, to make it 1-1. Mohamed Salah put Egypt in front 67 minutes into the game, set up by Mostafa Ziko, to make it 2-1. Trezeguet added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for Egypt, set up by Mohamed Salah, to make it 3-1. Mohanad Lashin (17'), Sarpreet Singh (20') and Callum McCowatt (34') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Egypt are 80 points stronger than New Zealand. two yellow cards went to New Zealand. The substitution total for New Zealand was five. one yellow card went to Egypt. The substitution total for Egypt was six. After coming on for Egypt in minute 76, Trezeguet scored in minute 82. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. Egypt won after falling behind.