Small-sample warning: 3 matches for New Zealand. Ratings 1419 and 1510, split 24.9% / 24.8% / 50.3%.
The gap between first and second outcome is 25.4 points, Egypt ahead of New Zealand. A 91-point spread sits between the two figures. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Most and least likely outcomes are 25.5 points apart. Egypt holds both halves of the profile — 1.05 against 0.99 for scoring, 1.02 against 1.26 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The tie closed out 1-3. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2024, 0-1 in Friendlies. By share of the rated field: 28.4% and 91.7%. A 3-match base for New Zealand. A decisive result carries 75.2% against 24.8% for the draw. Rounded, that is 1-1. A 2,819-place difference in ranking. Top of the distribution: Egypt, 50.3%. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.4%. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 4081th and 1262th of 4,449. Raw profiles are 0.99 and 1.26 against 1.05 and 1.02. On expected goals the model has it 1.37 against 1.78.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.