Iran has 3 rated matches behind their rating — thin. The split reads 51.8% / 24.5% / 23.7%.
The underlying goal expectation is 1.47 for Belgium, 1.12 for Iran. They are 1,132 places apart on the global list. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.4%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. A 28.1-point range top to bottom. By share of the rated field: 8.2% and 33.6%. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Belgium carries the largest share, 51.8%. Belgium is ahead on each half — 1.14 to 0.95 in attack, 0.87 to 0.95 in defence. Result on the day: 0-0. A 100-point spread sits between the two figures. First to second is a 27.3-point step, Belgium over the draw. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Worldwide they stand at 363 and 1495 among 4,449 rated sides. Attack/defence pairs: 1.14/0.87 and 0.95/0.95. Win-or-lose totals 75.5%; the draw takes the rest. Worth noting the base: only 3 rated matches sit behind Iran's number.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.