A 54.3% / 23.9% / 21.8% split off ratings of 1597 and 1480. Belgium is ahead on each half — 1.13 to 0.88 in attack, 0.90 to 1.06 in defence.
From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +97 and -20. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The underlying goal expectation is 1.62 for Belgium, 1.07 for Iran. By expected share of the points: 66.2% and 33.8%. Belgium carries the largest share, 54.3%. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. A 117-point spread sits between the two figures. First to second is a 30.4-point step, Belgium over the draw. Win-or-lose totals 76.1%; the draw takes the rest. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.8%. A 32.5-point range top to bottom. Result on the day: 0-0. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Worth noting the base: only 5 rated matches sit behind Iran's number. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Attack/defence pairs: 1.13/0.90 and 0.88/1.06.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Belgium: three wins and two draws over five games; 14 goals scored, four conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Egypt on 15 June; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Tunisia on 6 June.
Playing at home against Egypt (World Cup), Belgium finished 1-1 on 15 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 6 June: Belgium won 5-0 against Tunisia at home in International Friendlies, scoring five goals and allowing zero. Against Croatia in International Friendlies, Belgium scored two and conceded zero on 2 June; the away from home result was 2-0. Belgium's away from home game on 1 April (International Friendlies) ended 1-1 against Mexico, with one goal for and one against. On 28 March, USA faced Belgium in International Friendlies: Belgium won 5-2 away from home, having scored five and conceded two.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Belgium 26th after one match and one point.
13 goals for and five against accompanied Iran's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. A 2-2 draw at home to New Zealand (16 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to Costa Rica on 31 March.
Iran's at home game on 16 June (World Cup) ended 2-2 against New Zealand, with two goals for and two against. On 4 June, Mali faced Iran in International Friendlies: Iran won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 29 May brought a home meeting with Gambia; Iran won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Iran visited Costa Rica on 31 March (International Friendlies) and won 5-0; their goals totalled five, compared with zero conceded. Nigeria travelled to face Iran (International Friendlies) on 27 March. For Iran, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed.
Iran stood 24th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with one point from one match.
After the match
Belgium and Iran could not be separated in a goalless draw at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles on 21 June 2026. Nathan Ngoy (66') was sent off. Romelu Lukaku (3') and Saeid Ezatolahi (33') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Belgium 117 points stronger than Iran. Belgium: one yellow card and one red card. Belgium made five changes. Iran picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Iran was five. A clean sheet for Belgium. Iran conceded no goals.