The caveat comes first here. Iran has only 3 rated matches behind their number, so while the model returns 1502 against 1419 and a 49.1% / 25.1% / 25.8% split, that precision is not earned yet.
Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.62 and 1.28. Most and least likely outcomes are 24.0 points apart. The model's preferred outcome is Iran at 49.1%. A 2,586-place difference in ranking. The gap between first and second outcome is 23.3 points, Iran ahead of New Zealand. 83 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The Iran figure is drawn from 3 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Worldwide they stand at 1495 and 4081 among 4,449 rated sides. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.4%. Result on the day: 2-2. One sits in the top 33.6%, the other the top 91.7%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Someone wins 74.9% of the time by this model. Its rounded call is 1-1. Neither side holds both halves — New Zealand scores at 0.99, Iran concedes at 0.95.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.