Draw weight is the story: 26.5% of a 42.9% / 26.5% / 30.6% split.
Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.42 and 1.51. Most and least likely outcomes are 16.4 points apart. The model's preferred outcome is Iran at 42.9%. Higher rating: the home side. The gap between first and second outcome is 12.3 points, Iran ahead of New Zealand. 43 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. The Iran figure is drawn from 5 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Scorelines above 8%: 4. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -20 and -63. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.5%. Result on the day: 2-2. The higher rating expects 56.2% of the points, the lower 43.8%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Someone wins 73.5% of the time by this model. Its rounded call is 1-1. Neither side holds both halves — New Zealand scores at 1.05, Iran concedes at 1.06. The four component numbers read 0.88, 1.06, 1.05, 1.19.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Iran's previous five results comprised three wins and two defeats. Their goal totals were 13 scored and 6 conceded. Mali were their latest opponents, at home on 4 June: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to Costa Rica on 31 March.
Against Mali in International Friendlies, Iran scored two and conceded zero on 4 June; the at home result was 2-0. Iran's at home game on 29 May (International Friendlies) ended 3-1 against Gambia, with three goals for and one against. On 31 March, Costa Rica faced Iran in International Friendlies: Iran won 5-0 away from home, having scored five and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 27 March brought a home meeting with Nigeria; Iran lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Iran hosted Qatar on 7 February 2024 (AFC Asian Cup) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded.
New Zealand's previous five results comprised three draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 2 scored and 7 conceded, failing to score in three of those games, with no wins. England were their latest opponents, away on 6 June: a 1-0 defeat.
0-1 was New Zealand's result against England on 6 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; New Zealand lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 3 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired New Zealand with Haiti. New Zealand lost 0-4 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding four. Playing away from home against Paraguay (World Cup), New Zealand finished 0-0 on 24 June 2010. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 20 June 2010: New Zealand drew 1-1 against Italy away from home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Slovakia in World Cup, New Zealand scored one and conceded one on 15 June 2010; the at home result was 1-1.
After the match
Iran and New Zealand drew 2-2 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles on 16 June 2026. Elijah Just opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for New Zealand, set up by Chris Wood, to make it 1-0. Ramin Rezaeian levelled it in the 32nd minute for Iran to make it 1-1. New Zealand regained the lead through Elijah Just 54 minutes into the game, set up by Chris Wood, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Iran drew level through Mohammad Mohebi 64 minutes into the game, set up by Ramin Rezaeian, to make it 2-2. Ehsan Hajsafi (89') was booked. Iran: one yellow card. four changes were recorded for Iran. Ehsan Hajsafi entered for Iran at 65 minutes and later was booked. New Zealand: five substitutions.