On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2018, 4-2 on goals. Last time: 2022, 1-2 in Friendlies. History aside, the live ratings of 1597 and 1517 drive a 48.7% / 25.2% / 26.1% distribution.
As a single number the model says 1-1. Top of the distribution: Belgium, 48.7%. Higher rating: the home side. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Distance between the ratings: 80 points, wide on this scale. Most and least likely outcomes are 23.5 points apart. The ratings draw on 14 and 8 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Belgium leads the distribution by 22.6 points over Egypt. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The underlying goal expectation is 1.36 for Belgium, 1.31 for Egypt. Scorelines above 8%: 5. 74.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.3%. The component ratings barely separate them — 1.13 and 1.08 for scoring, 0.90 and 0.89 for conceding — so the model is not leaning on a stylistic mismatch here. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +97 and +17. Elo expected shares: 61.3% and 38.7%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Belgium's previous five results comprised four wins and one draw. Their goal totals were 16 scored and 3 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Tunisia were their latest opponents, at home on 6 June: a 5-0 win.
On 6 June, Tunisia faced Belgium in International Friendlies: Belgium won 5-0 at home, having scored five and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 2 June brought an away meeting with Croatia; Belgium won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Belgium visited Mexico on 1 April (International Friendlies) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. USA hosted Belgium (International Friendlies) on 28 March. For Belgium, the score was 5-2: five goals scored, two allowed. 3-0 was Belgium's result against Ukraine on 23 March 2025 (UEFA Nations League), playing at home; Belgium won, with three scored to zero conceded.
Egypt: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; six goals scored, two conceded, keeping four clean sheets. Latest: a 2-1 defeat away to Brazil on 6 June; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Saudi Arabia on 27 March.
Playing away from home against Brazil (International Friendlies), Egypt finished 1-2 on 6 June. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 28 May: Egypt won 1-0 against Russia at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Spain in International Friendlies, Egypt scored zero and conceded zero on 31 March; the away from home result was 0-0. Egypt's away from home game on 27 March (International Friendlies) ended 4-0 against Saudi Arabia, with four goals for and zero against. On 17 January, Nigeria faced Egypt in Africa Cup of Nations: Egypt drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero.
After the match
Belgium and Egypt drew 1-1 at Lumen Field, Seattle on 15 June 2026. Emam Ashour opened the scoring in the 19th minute for Egypt, set up by Mohamed Salah, to make it 1-0. Mohamed Hany (an own goal) levelled it 66 minutes into the game for Belgium to make it 1-1. Marwan Attia (13'), Timothy Castagne (14'), Ahmed El Fotouh (34') and Maxim De Cuyper (75') were booked. The card tally for Belgium was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Belgium. Maxim De Cuyper entered for Belgium at 56 minutes and later was booked. Egypt: two yellow cards. Egypt made five changes.