At 27.0% the draw is close to the most likely single outcome.
Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Someone wins 72.9% of the time by this model. Result on the day: 1-1. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. 28 points of rating separation. The underlying goal expectation is 1.60 for Japan, 1.32 for Sweden. The leading outcome clears the second by 7.9 points. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 8 and 8 matches. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Outcomes span 13.4 points. 40.4% goes to Japan, the model's lean. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.4%. In absolute terms: Japan 1.14/0.89, Sweden 1.09/1.05 on attack and defence. Japan is ahead on each half — 1.14 to 1.09 in attack, 0.89 to 1.05 in defence. The higher rating expects 54.0% of the points, the lower 46.0%. Higher rating: the home side. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +34 and +6.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Japan were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring nine goals and conceding two, keeping four clean sheets. On 21 June, Japan recorded a 4-0 win visiting Tunisia.
Tunisia hosted Japan (World Cup) on 21 June. For Japan, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 2-2 was Japan's result against Netherlands on 14 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Japan drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 31 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Japan with Iceland. Japan won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against England (International Friendlies), Japan finished 1-0 on 31 March. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 28 March: Japan won 1-0 against Scotland away from home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing zero.
Japan stood 15th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with four points from two matches.
Sweden's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 15 scored and 11 conceded. Netherlands were their latest opponents, away on 20 June: a 5-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 6-0 at home to Azerbaijan on 19 November 2024.
Sweden visited Netherlands on 20 June (World Cup) and lost 1-5; their goals totalled one, compared with five conceded. Tunisia travelled to face Sweden (World Cup) on 15 June. For Sweden, the score was 5-1: five goals scored, one allowed. 2-2 was Sweden's result against Greece on 4 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Sweden drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 1 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Sweden with Norway. Sweden lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Azerbaijan (UEFA Nations League), Sweden finished 6-0 on 19 November 2024. Their score comprised six goals, against zero from the opposition.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Sweden 23rd after two matches and three points.
After the match
Japan and Sweden drew 1-1 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas on 25 June 2026. Daizen Maeda opened the scoring 56 minutes into the game for Japan, set up by Ritsu Doan, to make it 1-0. Anthony Elanga levelled it 62 minutes into the game for Sweden, set up by Viktor Gyökeres, to make it 1-1. Isak Hien (32'), Shogo Taniguchi (77') and Viktor Gyökeres (85') were booked. Japan are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Kirin Cup. Sweden are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Japan: one yellow card. Japan made five changes. Shogo Taniguchi entered for Japan at 39 minutes and later was booked. The card tally for Sweden was two yellow cards. Sweden made five changes.