At 26.4% the draw is close to the most likely single outcome.
Japan's number leans on a 4-match sample. Someone wins 73.6% of the time by this model. Result on the day: 1-1. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. 44 points of rating separation. The underlying goal expectation is 1.76 for Japan, 1.39 for Sweden. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 12.8 points. Outcomes span 16.8 points. 43.2% goes to Japan, the model's lean. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.5%. In absolute terms: Japan 1.10/0.98, Sweden 1.05/1.19 on attack and defence. Japan is ahead on each half — 1.10 to 1.05 in attack, 0.98 to 1.19 in defence. One sits in the top 27.1%, the other the top 71.8%. A 1,989-place difference in ranking. They occupy positions 1205 and 3194 in a 4,449-team ranking.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.