Netherlands rates 1611 to Tunisia's 1389 — 222 points. Split: 11.7% / 20.2% / 68.0%.
Expected goals come out at 1.20 to 2.26. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Attack/defence pairs: 0.94/1.30 and 1.29/0.95. As a single number the model says 1-2. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 9.6% — not a strong call. First to second is a 47.8-point step, Netherlands over the draw. Most likely single result is Netherlands on 68.0%. Someone wins 79.7% of the time by this model. The rating gap itself is 222 points, which is wide by the model's standards. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -111 and +111. By expected share of the points: 21.8% and 78.2%. The tie closed out 1-3. Netherlands holds both halves of the profile — 1.29 against 0.94 for scoring, 0.95 against 1.30 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Higher rating: the away side. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Most and least likely outcomes are 56.3 points apart. Tunisia's side of that rests on 5 rated matches, so treat it as provisional.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Tunisia arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording one draw and four defeats, scoring one goal and conceding 15, failing to score in four of those games. On 21 June, Tunisia recorded a 4-0 defeat hosting Japan.
World Cup, 21 June brought a home meeting with Japan; Tunisia lost 0-4, a return of zero goals scored and four conceded. Tunisia visited Sweden on 15 June (World Cup) and lost 1-5; their goals totalled one, compared with five conceded. Belgium hosted Tunisia (International Friendlies) on 6 June. For Tunisia, the score was 0-5: zero goals scored, five allowed. 0-1 was Tunisia's result against Austria on 1 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Tunisia lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 31 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Tunisia with Canada. Tunisia drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.
Tunisia: 48th, zero points, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Netherlands's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 6 conceded. Latest: a 5-1 win at home to Sweden on 20 June.
5-1 was Netherlands's result against Sweden on 20 June (World Cup), playing at home; Netherlands won, with five scored to one conceded. The 14 June fixture (World Cup) paired Netherlands with Japan. Netherlands drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Uzbekistan (International Friendlies), Netherlands finished 2-1 on 8 June. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 3 June: Netherlands lost 0-1 against Algeria at home in International Friendlies, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Ecuador in International Friendlies, Netherlands scored one and conceded one on 31 March; the at home result was 1-1.
four points in two matches put Netherlands 14th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Netherlands beat Tunisia 3-1 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City on 25 June 2026. Ellyes Skhiri (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Netherlands to make it 1-0. Brian Brobbey added to the tally inside the first 7 minutes for Netherlands, set up by Virgil van Dijk, to make it 2-0. Hazem Mastouri pulled one back 54 minutes into the game for Tunisia, set up by Hannibal Mejbri, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Netherlands extended the lead through Jan Paul van Hecke 62 minutes into the game, set up by Tijjani Reijnders, to make it 3-1. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Netherlands 222 points stronger than Tunisia. Netherlands won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 68%. Netherlands are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 0.62 to 1.85. Tunisia made five changes. Netherlands: five substitutions.