With only 3 rated matches for Tunisia, treat the 13.0% / 20.8% / 66.2% split as provisional.
Expected goals come out at 1.17 to 2.29. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Attack/defence pairs: 0.91/1.33 and 1.28/0.95. As a single number the model says 1-2. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 9.6% — not a strong call. First to second is a 45.4-point step, Netherlands over the draw. Most likely single result is Netherlands on 66.2%. Someone wins 79.2% of the time by this model. The rating gap itself is 206 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Worldwide they stand at 4264 and 385 among 4,449 rated sides. By share of the rated field: 8.7% and 95.8%. The tie closed out 1-3. Netherlands holds both halves of the profile — 1.28 against 0.91 for scoring, 0.95 against 1.33 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. A 3,879-place difference in ranking. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Most and least likely outcomes are 53.2 points apart. Tunisia's side of that rests on 3 rated matches, so treat it as provisional.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.