On record: 2 meetings from 2002, 0-4 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2023, 0-2 in Friendlies. The live ratings are 1389 and 1534, giving 18.8% / 22.9% / 58.2%.
Expected goals sit at 1.13 against 2.00. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The Tunisia figure is drawn from 5 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. There is no trade-off to weigh: Japan scores at the higher rate (1.14 to 0.94) and concedes at the lower (0.89 to 1.30). Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Raw profiles are 0.94 and 1.30 against 1.14 and 0.89. Between best and worst outcome there is 39.4 points of daylight. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Top of the distribution: Japan, 58.2%. A decisive result carries 77.0% against 22.9% for the draw. It ended 0-4. Rating separation comes to 145 points. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.9%. By expected share of the points: 30.3% and 69.7%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Versus the 1500 seed: -111 and +34.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Tunisia: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; two goals scored, 11 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 5-1 defeat away to Sweden on 15 June.
1-5 was Tunisia's result against Sweden on 15 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Tunisia lost, with one scored to five conceded. The 6 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Tunisia with Belgium. Tunisia lost 0-5 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding five. Playing away from home against Austria (International Friendlies), Tunisia finished 0-1 on 1 June. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 31 March: Tunisia drew 0-0 against Canada away from home in International Friendlies, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Haiti in International Friendlies, Tunisia scored one and conceded zero on 29 March; the away from home result was 1-0.
zero points in one match put Tunisia 47th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
six goals for and four against accompanied Japan's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. A 2-2 draw away to Netherlands (14 June) was their most recent result.
14 June: Japan drew 2-2 against Netherlands away from home in World Cup, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Iceland in International Friendlies, Japan scored one and conceded zero on 31 May; the at home result was 1-0. Japan's away from home game on 31 March (International Friendlies) ended 1-0 against England, with one goal for and zero against. On 28 March, Scotland faced Japan in International Friendlies: Japan won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. AFC Asian Cup, 3 February 2024 brought an away meeting with Iran; Japan lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded.
Japan: 22nd, one point, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
After the match
Japan overwhelmed Tunisia 4-0 at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey on 21 June 2026. Daichi Kamada opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Japan, set up by Keito Nakamura, to make it 1-0. Ayase Ueda added to the tally in the 31st minute for Japan, set up by Ko Itakura, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Japan extended the lead through Junya Ito 69 minutes into the game, set up by Ayase Ueda, to make it 3-0. Ayase Ueda scored the 4th goal for Japan late on, in the 83rd minute as they extended the lead, set up by Kaishu Sano, to make it 4-0. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Japan 145 points stronger than Tunisia. 58.2% is Japan's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. On current ratings the model puts Japan at around 2 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Japan are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Kirin Cup. Expected goals put the gap at 0.05 to 2.13. The substitution total for Tunisia was five. five changes were recorded for Japan. A clean sheet for Japan.