Historically: 2 meetings from 2002, 0-4 on aggregate goals, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2023, 0-2 in Friendlies. The live ratings are 1392 and 1512, giving 21.5% / 23.8% / 54.7%.
Expected goals sit at 1.22 against 1.97. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The Tunisia figure is drawn from 3 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. There is no trade-off to weigh: Japan scores at the higher rate (1.10 to 0.91) and concedes at the lower (0.98 to 1.33). Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Raw profiles are 0.91 and 1.33 against 1.10 and 0.98. Between best and worst outcome there is 33.2 points of daylight. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. They are 3,059 places apart on the global list. Top of the distribution: Japan, 54.7%. A decisive result carries 76.2% against 23.8% for the draw. It ended 0-4. Rating separation comes to 120 points. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.9%. By share of the rated field: 27.1% and 95.8%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Global standing: 4264 and 1205 of 4,449.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.