On record: 3 meetings from 1974, 3-1 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2017, 2-0 in World Cup - Qualification Europe. Against that, current ratings read 1611 and 1506, a 105-point margin, and the model splits the tie 52.4% / 24.3% / 23.2%.
Most and least likely outcomes are 29.2 points apart. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +111 and +6. Distance between the ratings: 105 points, wide on this scale. Netherlands carries the largest share, 52.4%. A 28.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.2%. Its rounded call is 1-1. Played and finished 5-1. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 64.7% to 35.3%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. In absolute terms: Netherlands 1.29/0.95, Sweden 1.09/1.05 on attack and defence. With 14 and 8 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Someone wins 75.6% of the time by this model. Neither component contradicts the other: Netherlands leads 1.29-1.09 forward and 0.95-1.05 back.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Netherlands came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding six. A 2-2 draw at home to Japan (14 June) was their most recent result.
Japan travelled to face Netherlands (World Cup) on 14 June. For Netherlands, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 2-1 was Netherlands's result against Uzbekistan on 8 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Netherlands won, with two scored to one conceded. The 3 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Netherlands with Algeria. Netherlands lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Ecuador (International Friendlies), Netherlands finished 1-1 on 31 March. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 27 March: Netherlands won 2-1 against Norway at home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing one.
Netherlands stood 21st in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with one point from one match.
Sweden: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; 16 goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 5-1 win at home to Tunisia on 15 June; their biggest win in that spell was 6-0 at home to Azerbaijan on 19 November 2024.
Against Tunisia in World Cup, Sweden scored five and conceded one on 15 June; the at home result was 5-1. Sweden's at home game on 4 June (International Friendlies) ended 2-2 against Greece, with two goals for and two against. On 1 June, Norway faced Sweden in International Friendlies: Sweden lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. UEFA Nations League, 19 November 2024 brought a home meeting with Azerbaijan; Sweden won 6-0, a return of six goals scored and zero conceded. Sweden hosted Slovakia on 16 November 2024 (UEFA Nations League) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
three points in one match put Sweden 8th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Netherlands overwhelmed Sweden 5-1 at NRG Stadium, Houston on 20 June 2026. Brian Brobbey opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for Netherlands, set up by Cody Gakpo, to make it 1-0. Brian Brobbey added to the tally in the 17th minute for Netherlands, set up by Denzel Dumfries, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Netherlands extended the lead through Cody Gakpo 47 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Cody Gakpo scored the 4th goal for Netherlands 54 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Crysencio Summerville, to make it 4-0. Anthony Elanga got one back 59 minutes into the game for Sweden, set up by Alexander Isak, to make it 1-4. Netherlands extended the lead late on, in the 89th minute; the match's 6th goal came through Memphis Depay, set up by Cody Gakpo, to make it 5-1. Gabriel Gudmundsson (53'), Yasin Ayari (75') and Lucas Bergvall (81') were booked. On current ratings the model puts Netherlands at around 1.82 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Netherlands are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Sweden are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.61 to 1.01. five changes were recorded for Netherlands. Crysencio Summerville provided an assist following entry for Netherlands in the 46th minute. Memphis Depay, on in the 72nd minute, scored in minute 89. Sweden: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Sweden. Anthony Elanga scored in minute 59 following entry for Sweden in the 55th minute. Lucas Bergvall, on in the 55th minute, was booked.