Historically: 3 meetings from 1974, 3-1 on aggregate goals, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2017, 2-0 in World Cup - Qualification Europe. Against that, current ratings read 1598 and 1468, a 130-point margin, and the model splits the tie 56.2% / 23.4% / 20.3%.
Most and least likely outcomes are 35.9 points apart. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Worldwide they stand at 385 and 3194 among 4,449 rated sides. Distance between the ratings: 130 points, wide on this scale. Netherlands carries the largest share, 56.2%. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.5%. A 32.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Played and finished 5-1. Sweden's number leans on a 4-match sample. By percentile the separation is top 8.7% to top 71.8%. They are 2,809 places apart on the global list. In absolute terms: Netherlands 1.28/0.95, Sweden 1.05/1.19 on attack and defence. Its rounded call is 2-1. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Someone wins 76.5% of the time by this model. Neither component contradicts the other: Netherlands leads 1.28-1.05 forward and 0.95-1.19 back.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.