Tunisia has 3 rated matches behind their rating — thin. The split reads 48.0% / 25.4% / 26.6%.
The four component numbers read 1.05, 1.19, 0.91, 1.33. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Sweden sits 21.4 points above the next most likely result. Outcomes span 22.6 points. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Tunisia's number leans on a 3-match sample. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.7% — not a strong call. The match finished 5-1. The model gives 74.6% to someone winning. The higher-percentile side clears the top 71.8%; the other the top 95.8%. Sweden holds both halves of the profile — 1.05 against 0.91 for scoring, 1.19 against 1.33 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Expected goals 1.88-1.47. They occupy positions 3194 and 4264 in a 4,449-team ranking. 76 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. 1,070 places separate them in the global order. Most likely single result is Sweden on 48.0%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.