Rated 1506 and 1389, these two produce a 54.3% / 23.9% / 21.8% split. Sweden holds both halves of the profile — 1.09 against 0.94 for scoring, 1.05 against 1.30 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
The higher rating belongs to the home side. Most likely single result is Sweden on 54.3%. The model gives 76.1% to someone winning. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The higher-rated side expects 66.2% of the points; the other side 33.8%. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Expected goals 1.93-1.33. Outcomes span 32.5 points. The four component numbers read 1.09, 1.05, 0.94, 1.30. 117 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.9% — not a strong call. Sweden sits 30.4 points above the next most likely result. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +6 and -111. Tunisia's number leans on a 5-match sample. The match finished 5-1. Scorelines above 8%: 2.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Sweden came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 14 goals and conceding six. On 4 June, Sweden recorded a 2-2 draw hosting Greece; their biggest win in that spell was 6-0 at home to Azerbaijan on 19 November 2024.
4 June: Sweden drew 2-2 against Greece at home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Norway in International Friendlies, Sweden scored one and conceded three on 1 June; the away from home result was 1-3. Sweden's at home game on 19 November 2024 (UEFA Nations League) ended 6-0 against Azerbaijan, with six goals for and zero against. On 16 November 2024, Slovakia faced Sweden in UEFA Nations League: Sweden won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. UEFA Nations League, 14 October 2024 brought an away meeting with Estonia; Sweden won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded.
Tunisia came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring two goals and conceding seven, failing to score in three of those games. On 6 June, Tunisia recorded a 5-0 defeat visiting Belgium.
International Friendlies, 6 June brought an away meeting with Belgium; Tunisia lost 0-5, a return of zero goals scored and five conceded. Tunisia visited Austria on 1 June (International Friendlies) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Canada hosted Tunisia (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Tunisia, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 1-0 was Tunisia's result against Haiti on 29 March (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Tunisia won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 3 January fixture (Africa Cup of Nations) paired Tunisia with Mali. Tunisia drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one.
After the match
Sweden overwhelmed Tunisia 5-1 at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey on 15 June 2026. Yasin Ayari opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Sweden to make it 1-0. Alexander Isak added to the tally in the 30th minute for Sweden, set up by Viktor Gyökeres, to make it 2-0. Omar Rekik pulled one back in the 43rd minute for Tunisia, set up by Hannibal Mejbri, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Sweden extended the lead through Viktor Gyökeres 59 minutes into the game, set up by Alexander Isak, to make it 3-1. Mattias Svanberg scored the 5th goal for Sweden late on, in the 84th minute as they extended the lead, set up by Alexander Isak, to make it 4-1. Sweden extended the lead in the 96th minute; the match's 6th goal came through Yasin Ayari, set up by Lucas Bergvall, to make it 5-1. Rani Khedira (54') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Sweden 117 points stronger than Tunisia. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model puts Sweden at around 1.93 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Sweden are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. The substitution total for Sweden was five. After coming on for Sweden in minute 65, Lucas Bergvall provided an assist. Mattias Svanberg scored in minute 84 following entry for Sweden in the 84th minute. Tunisia: one yellow card. Tunisia made five changes.