The two halves pull apart — Netherlands better going forward at 1.29, Japan tighter at the back on 0.89. On rating it is 1611 against 1534, which the model resolves to 48.2% / 25.3% / 26.5%.
These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Point estimate: 1-1. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Someone wins 74.7% of the time by this model. The model's preferred outcome is Netherlands at 48.2%. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2010, 1-0 in World Cup. Netherlands leads the distribution by 21.7 points over Japan. Rating separation comes to 77 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +111 and +34. The three results cover 22.9 points. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.55 and 1.45. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.2%. In absolute terms: Netherlands 1.29/0.95, Japan 1.14/0.89 on attack and defence. The match finished 2-2. Both figures rest on decent samples, 14 and 8 matches. The higher rating expects 60.9% of the points, the lower 39.1%. The higher rating belongs to the home side.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
eight goals for and seven against accompanied Netherlands's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. On 8 June, Netherlands recorded a 2-1 win hosting Uzbekistan.
The 8 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Netherlands with Uzbekistan. Netherlands won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Algeria (International Friendlies), Netherlands finished 0-1 on 3 June. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 31 March: Netherlands drew 1-1 against Ecuador at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Norway in International Friendlies, Netherlands scored two and conceded one on 27 March; the at home result was 2-1. Netherlands's away from home game on 23 March 2025 (UEFA Nations League) ended 3-3 against Spain, with three goals for and three against.
Japan came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding three, keeping three clean sheets. On 31 May, Japan recorded a 1-0 win hosting Iceland.
International Friendlies, 31 May brought a home meeting with Iceland; Japan won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Japan visited England on 31 March (International Friendlies) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Scotland hosted Japan (International Friendlies) on 28 March. For Japan, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-2 was Japan's result against Iran on 3 February 2024 (AFC Asian Cup), playing away from home; Japan lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 31 January 2024 fixture (AFC Asian Cup) paired Japan with Bahrain. Japan won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 home win for Netherlands on 19 June 2010.
After the match
Netherlands and Japan drew 2-2 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas on 14 June 2026. Virgil van Dijk opened the scoring 51 minutes into the game for Netherlands to make it 1-0. Keito Nakamura levelled it 57 minutes into the game for Japan to make it 1-1. Netherlands regained the lead through Crysencio Summerville 64 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Japan drew level through Daichi Kamada late on, in the 89th minute, set up by Koki Ogawa, to make it 2-2. Micky van de Ven (91') was booked. Every goal came after the interval. Netherlands are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Japan are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Kirin Cup. Netherlands: one yellow card. Netherlands made five changes. Japan made five changes.