Sample size is the first thing to note. Curaçao carries 3 rated matches, so while the split reads 25.9% / 25.1% / 49.0% off ratings of 1425 and 1507, the confidence is thin.
Win-or-lose totals 74.9%; the draw takes the rest. As a single number the model says 1-1. The xG line reads 1.11 to 1.59. A 3-match base for Curaçao. Both components point the same way, toward Ivory Coast: 0.98 to 0.87 going forward, 0.95 to 1.19 going back. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ivory Coast leads the distribution by 23.1 points over Curaçao. Those ratings place them 4033th and 1346th worldwide, from a pool of 4,449. Ratings sit 82 apart. Most and least likely outcomes are 23.9 points apart. By percentile the separation is top 30.3% to top 90.6%. In absolute terms: Curaçao 0.87/1.19, Ivory Coast 0.98/0.95 on attack and defence. The ranking gap is 2,687 positions. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 11.9%. Top of the distribution: Ivory Coast, 49.0%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.