Rated 1474 and 1533, these two produce a 28.6% / 25.9% / 45.5% split. One half each — Curaçao in front on 1.15, Ivory Coast behind on 0.83.
In absolute terms: Curaçao 1.15/1.13, Ivory Coast 0.98/0.83 on attack and defence. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 41.6% to 58.4%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -26 and +33. Ivory Coast leads the distribution by 16.9 points over Curaçao. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 11.9%. As a single number the model says 1-1. Most and least likely outcomes are 19.6 points apart. Neither figure is thin: 7 and 7 matches respectively sit behind them. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. It ended 0-2. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Ratings sit 59 apart. The away side is rated higher. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The xG line reads 1.29 to 1.49. Win-or-lose totals 74.1%; the draw takes the rest. Top of the distribution: Ivory Coast, 45.5%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Curaçao's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 13 conceded. Latest: a 0-0 draw away to Ecuador on 21 June; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Aruba on 7 June.
On 21 June, Ecuador faced Curaçao in World Cup: Curaçao drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. World Cup, 14 June brought an away meeting with Germany; Curaçao lost 1-7, a return of one goal scored and seven conceded. Curaçao hosted Aruba on 7 June (International Friendlies) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded. Scotland hosted Curaçao (International Friendlies) on 30 May. For Curaçao, the score was 1-4: one goal scored, four allowed. 1-2 was Curaçao's result against Honduras on 25 June 2025 (CONCACAF Gold Cup), playing away from home; Curaçao lost, with one scored to two conceded.
one point in two matches put Curaçao 39th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
seven goals for and three against accompanied Ivory Coast's four wins and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. On 20 June, Ivory Coast recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Germany.
Ivory Coast's away from home game on 20 June (World Cup) ended 1-2 against Germany, with one goal for and two against. On 14 June, Ecuador faced Ivory Coast in World Cup: Ivory Coast won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 8 June brought an away meeting with Philadelphia Union II; Ivory Coast won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Ivory Coast visited France on 4 June (International Friendlies) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Scotland hosted Ivory Coast (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Ivory Coast, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed.
Ivory Coast stood 23rd in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with three points from two matches.
After the match
Ivory Coast beat Curaçao 2-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia on 25 June 2026. Nicolas Pépé opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Ivory Coast, set up by Yan Diomandé, to make it 1-0. Nicolas Pépé added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for Ivory Coast, set up by Ibrahim Sangaré, to make it 2-0. Juninho Bacuna (75') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Ivory Coast are 59 points stronger than Curaçao. Curaçao are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 CONCACAF Nations League. Curaçao picked up one yellow card. Curaçao: four substitutions. Ivory Coast made five changes. A clean sheet for Ivory Coast.