A 22.6% / 24.1% / 53.3% split off ratings of 1465 and 1576. Germany holds both halves of the profile — 1.15 against 0.76 for scoring, 0.78 against 0.95 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Scorelines above 8%: 5. Most likely single result is Germany on 53.3%. A 111-point difference on the rating scale. The higher rating expects 65.5% of the points, the lower 34.5%. The model gives 75.9% to someone winning. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.81 and 1.48. Most weight falls on 0-1 at 15.1%. Raw profiles are 0.76 and 0.95 against 1.15 and 0.78. Reduced to one result that is 0-1. The ratings draw on 7 and 13 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -35 and +76. They have met once on record — 2006, 0-3 in World Cup, which is too little history to weigh. First to second is a 29.2-point step, Germany over the draw. Played and finished 2-1. Spread across the three results is 30.7 points.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Ecuador came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding three. On 21 June, Ecuador recorded a 0-0 draw hosting Curaçao; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Guatemala on 7 June.
Ecuador's at home game on 21 June (World Cup) ended 0-0 against Curaçao, with zero goals for and zero against. On 14 June, Ivory Coast faced Ecuador in World Cup: Ecuador lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. International Friendlies, 7 June brought a home meeting with Guatemala; Ecuador won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Ecuador hosted Saudi Arabia on 31 May (International Friendlies) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Netherlands hosted Ecuador (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Ecuador, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
Ecuador stood 35th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with one point from two matches.
Germany were unbeaten in their last five games, with five wins, scoring 17 goals and conceding four. On 20 June, Germany recorded a 2-1 win hosting Ivory Coast; their biggest win in that spell was 7-1 at home to Curaçao on 14 June.
20 June: Germany won 2-1 against Ivory Coast at home in World Cup, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Curaçao in World Cup, Germany scored seven and conceded one on 14 June; the at home result was 7-1. Germany's away from home game on 6 June (International Friendlies) ended 2-1 against USA, with two goals for and one against. On 31 May, Finland faced Germany in International Friendlies: Germany won 4-0 at home, having scored four and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 30 March brought a home meeting with Ghana; Germany won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
Germany stood 5th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with six points from two matches.
After the match
Ecuador edged past Germany 2-1 at MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey on 25 June 2026. Leroy Sané opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Germany, set up by Florian Wirtz, to make it 1-0. Nilson Angulo levelled it inside the first 9 minutes for Ecuador, set up by Pedro Vite, to make it 1-1. Gonzalo Plata put Ecuador in front 78 minutes into the game, set up by Kevin Rodríguez, to make it 2-1. Piero Hincapié (43'), Aleksandar Pavlović (44'), Alan Franco (50') and Gonzalo Plata (89') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Germany clearly the stronger side, by 111 rating points over Ecuador, even though it was Ecuador who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Ecuador only a 22.6% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Ecuador won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. Ecuador picked up three yellow cards. Ecuador: five substitutions. Kevin Rodríguez, on in the 64th minute, provided an assist. one yellow card went to Germany. The substitution total for Germany was five. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Ecuador turned a deficit into victory.