A 23.8% / 24.5% / 51.7% split off ratings of 1481 and 1580. Germany holds both halves of the profile — 1.32 against 0.86 for scoring, 0.90 against 0.95 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Scorelines above 8%: 4. Most likely single result is Germany on 51.7%. A 99-point difference on the rating scale. One sits in the top 10.9%, the other the top 57.4%. The model gives 75.5% to someone winning. A 4-match base for Ecuador. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.06 and 1.69. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.5%. Raw profiles are 0.86 and 0.95 against 1.32 and 0.90. First to second is a 27.2-point step, Germany over the draw. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 2553th and 485th. They have met once on record — 2006, 0-3 in World Cup, which is too little history to weigh. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Played and finished 2-1. Spread across the three results is 27.9 points. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.