With only 3 rated matches for Curaçao, treat the 44.9% / 26.1% / 29.0% split as provisional.
Expected goals come out at 1.39 to 1.11. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.6%. The ranking gap is 1,480 positions. The edge is split: Curaçao scores at the higher rate (0.87 to 0.86), Ecuador concedes at the lower (0.95 to 1.19). A 15.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The higher-percentile side clears the top 57.4%; the other the top 90.6%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The tie closed out 0-0. 73.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The four component numbers read 0.86, 0.95, 0.87, 1.19. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Curaçao's number leans on a 3-match sample. In the global table that is 2553 and 4033 out of 4,449 rated teams. The two ratings differ by 56 points. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Most likely single result is Ecuador on 44.9%. The distribution runs from 44.9% down to 26.1%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.