The stalemate is the notable number here: 26.5%, with the wins on 42.8% and 30.7%.
The model gives 73.5% to someone winning. Ratings sit 43 apart. With 13 and 7 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Germany's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 56.2%. The distribution runs from 42.8% down to 26.5%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.15/0.78 and 0.98/0.83. It ended 2-1. Germany carries the largest share, 42.8%. The home side is rated higher. xG: 1.29 to 1.04. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Germany sits 12.1 points above the next most likely result. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 13.0%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +76 and +33. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Germany is ahead on each half — 1.15 to 0.98 in attack, 0.78 to 0.83 in defence.
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Match Report
Before the match
19 goals for and six against accompanied Germany's five wins across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 7-1 win at home to Curaçao (14 June) was their most recent result.
Curaçao travelled to face Germany (World Cup) on 14 June. For Germany, the score was 7-1: seven goals scored, one allowed. 2-1 was Germany's result against USA on 6 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Germany won, with two scored to one conceded. The 31 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Germany with Finland. Germany won 4-0 at home, netting four goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Ghana (International Friendlies), Germany finished 2-1 on 30 March. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 27 March: Germany won 4-3 against Switzerland away from home in International Friendlies, scoring four goals and allowing three.
Germany: 8th, three points, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Ivory Coast: five wins over five games; ten goals scored, one conceded, keeping four clean sheets, unbeaten. Ecuador were their latest opponents, at home on 14 June: a 1-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Korea Republic on 28 March.
On 14 June, Ecuador faced Ivory Coast in World Cup: Ivory Coast won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 8 June brought an away meeting with Philadelphia Union II; Ivory Coast won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Ivory Coast visited France on 4 June (International Friendlies) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Scotland hosted Ivory Coast (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Ivory Coast, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 4-0 was Ivory Coast's result against Korea Republic on 28 March (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Ivory Coast won, with four scored to zero conceded.
three points in one match put Ivory Coast 15th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Germany edged past Ivory Coast 2-1 at BMO Field, Toronto on 20 June 2026. Franck Kessié opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Ivory Coast to make it 1-0. Deniz Undav levelled it 68 minutes into the game for Germany, set up by Nadiem Amiri, to make it 1-1. Deniz Undav put Germany in front in the 94th minute, set up by Felix Kalu Nmecha, to make it 2-1. Germany: five substitutions. Deniz Undav, on in the 60th minute, scored two times in minutes 68, 94. Nadiem Amiri entered for Germany at 60 minutes and later provided an assist. The substitution total for Ivory Coast was four. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. Germany turned a deficit into victory.