Germany is ahead on each half — 1.32 to 0.98 in attack, 0.90 to 0.95 in defence. On rating it is 1580 against 1507, which the model resolves to 47.8% / 25.4% / 26.8%.
Attack/defence pairs: 1.32/0.90 and 0.98/0.95. It ended 2-1. Germany is the higher-percentile side, top 10.9% against top 30.3%. Ratings sit 73 apart. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The ranking gap is 861 positions. The distribution runs from 47.8% down to 25.4%. The model gives 74.6% to someone winning. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 485th and 1346th. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Germany sits 21.0 points above the next most likely result. xG: 1.69 to 1.20. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.3%. Worth noting the base: only 4 rated matches sit behind Ivory Coast's number. Germany carries the largest share, 47.8%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.