Ivory Coast is ahead on each half — 0.98 to 0.76 in attack, 0.83 to 0.95 in defence. On rating it is 1533 against 1465, which the model resolves to 46.9% / 25.6% / 27.5%.
Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Spread across the three results is 21.3 points. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. 46.9% goes to Ivory Coast, the model's lean. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Result on the day: 1-0. Elo expected shares: 59.7% and 40.3%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.26 for Ivory Coast, 0.86 for Ecuador. Neither figure is thin: 7 and 7 matches respectively sit behind them. Ivory Coast leads the distribution by 19.4 points over Ecuador. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Win-or-lose totals 74.4%; the draw takes the rest. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +33 and -35. The two ratings differ by 68 points. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 15.2%, with 1-1 behind it at 13.0%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.98/0.83 and 0.76/0.95. Higher rating: the home side.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
11 goals for and four against accompanied Ivory Coast's four wins and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. On 8 June, Ivory Coast recorded a 2-0 win visiting Philadelphia Union II; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Korea Republic on 28 March.
International Friendlies, 8 June brought an away meeting with Philadelphia Union II; Ivory Coast won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Ivory Coast visited France on 4 June (International Friendlies) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Scotland hosted Ivory Coast (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Ivory Coast, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 4-0 was Ivory Coast's result against Korea Republic on 28 March (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Ivory Coast won, with four scored to zero conceded. The 10 January fixture (Africa Cup of Nations) paired Ivory Coast with Egypt. Ivory Coast lost 2-3 away from home, netting two goals while conceding three.
Ecuador's previous five results comprised two wins and three draws. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 4 conceded, with no defeats. Guatemala were their latest opponents, at home on 7 June: a 3-0 win.
Against Guatemala in International Friendlies, Ecuador scored three and conceded zero on 7 June; the at home result was 3-0. Ecuador's at home game on 31 May (International Friendlies) ended 2-1 against Saudi Arabia, with two goals for and one against. On 31 March, Netherlands faced Ecuador in International Friendlies: Ecuador drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 27 March brought an away meeting with Morocco; Ecuador drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Ecuador visited Argentina on 5 July 2024 (Copa America) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.
After the match
Ivory Coast edged past Ecuador 1-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia on 14 June 2026. Amad Diallo opened the scoring late on, in the 90th minute for Ivory Coast, set up by Wilfried Singo, to make it 1-0. Seko Fofana (28'), Franck Kessié (38'), Guela Doué (40') and Jackson Porozo (73') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Ivory Coast are 68 points stronger than Ecuador. Ivory Coast: three yellow cards. Ivory Coast made five changes. Amad Diallo scored in minute 90 following entry for Ivory Coast in the 56th minute. Ecuador: one yellow card. Ecuador made four changes. Jackson Porozo, on in the 62nd minute, was booked. A clean sheet for Ivory Coast.