The draw carries unusual weight here, 27.1% against 40.2% and 32.7%.
Spread across the three results is 13.1 points. Result on the day: 1-0. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. A 1,207-place difference in ranking. The two ratings differ by 26 points. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 13.1%. Ivory Coast leads the distribution by 7.5 points over Ecuador. Ivory Coast's number leans on a 4-match sample. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. 40.2% goes to Ivory Coast, the model's lean. The underlying goal expectation is 1.26 for Ivory Coast, 1.11 for Ecuador. Percentile-wise: top 30.3% versus top 57.4%. Ivory Coast is ahead on each half — 0.98 to 0.86 in attack, 0.95 to 0.95 in defence. Win-or-lose totals 72.9%; the draw takes the rest. Attack/defence pairs: 0.98/0.95 and 0.86/0.95. In the global table that is 1346 and 2553 out of 4,449 rated teams.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.