With only 3 rated matches for Curaçao, treat the 59.7% / 22.6% / 17.7% split as provisional.
Curaçao's number leans on a 3-match sample. Scorelines above 8%: 4. It ended 7-1. Point estimate: 2-1. Germany holds a 37.1-point edge on the next outcome. The higher-percentile side clears the top 10.9%; the other the top 90.6%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The ranking gap is 3,548 positions. Ratings sit 155 apart. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.9%. Win-or-lose totals 77.4%; the draw takes the rest. In the global table that is 485 and 4033 out of 4,449 rated teams. Neither component contradicts the other: Germany leads 1.32-0.87 forward and 0.90-1.19 back. The four component numbers read 1.32, 0.90, 0.87, 1.19. A 42.0-point range top to bottom. Most likely single result is Germany on 59.7%. xG: 2.13 to 1.06. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.