Neither win dominates this distribution — the draw takes 27.1% against 32.7% and 40.2%.
Attack/defence pairs: 0.85/0.96 and 0.90/0.90. Distance between the ratings: 27 points, moderate on this scale. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.4%. Australia holds a 7.5-point edge on the next outcome. The Australia figure is drawn from 4 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. 1,144 places separate them in the global order. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Spread across the three results is 13.1 points. It ended 0-0. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Top of the distribution: Australia, 40.2%. Expected goals come out at 1.03 to 1.16. The model gives 72.9% to someone winning. On components there is almost nothing in it: 0.85 to 0.90 forward, 0.96 to 0.90 back. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The higher-percentile side clears the top 28.5%; the other the top 54.2%. In the global table that is 2412 and 1268 out of 4,449 rated teams.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.