The model has no meaningful preference: 1505 against 1495, split 37.5% / 27.7% / 34.8%.
Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/0.85 and 0.93/1.02. Distance between the ratings: 10 points, narrow on this scale. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.3%. Only 2.7 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. The Australia figure is drawn from 6 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. All three results are bunched inside 9.8 points. It ended 0-0. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Top of the distribution: Paraguay, 37.5%. Expected goals come out at 1.20 to 1.06. The model gives 72.3% to someone winning. One half each — Australia in front on 0.93, Paraguay behind on 0.85. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The higher-rated side expects 51.4% of the points; the other side 48.6%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +5 and -5.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
eight goals for and six against accompanied Paraguay's three wins and two defeats across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. A 1-0 win away to Turkey (20 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Nicaragua on 5 June.
20 June: Paraguay won 1-0 against Turkey away from home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against USA in World Cup, Paraguay scored one and conceded four on 13 June; the away from home result was 1-4. Paraguay's at home game on 5 June (International Friendlies) ended 4-0 against Nicaragua, with four goals for and zero against. On 31 March, Morocco faced Paraguay in International Friendlies: Paraguay lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. International Friendlies, 27 March brought an away meeting with Greece; Paraguay won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
Paraguay stood 28th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with three points from two matches.
Australia's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 6 conceded. USA were their latest opponents, away on 19 June: a 2-0 defeat.
0-2 was Australia's result against USA on 19 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Australia lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 14 June fixture (World Cup) paired Australia with Turkey. Australia won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Switzerland (International Friendlies), Australia finished 1-1 on 6 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 31 May: Australia lost 0-1 against Mexico away from home in International Friendlies, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Korea Republic in AFC Asian Cup, Australia scored one and conceded two on 2 February 2024; the at home result was 1-2.
three points in two matches put Australia 25th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Paraguay and Australia could not be separated in a goalless draw at Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area on 26 June 2026. Jackson Irvine (47') and Diego Gómez (77') were booked. Paraguay picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Paraguay was five. one yellow card went to Australia. The substitution total for Australia was three. Paraguay conceded no goals. Australia conceded no goals.